1 What makes an event “historical”?

Most of what has ever happened leaves no trace. The small fragment that does — and that gets taken up, argued over, and passed on — is what we end up calling history. The difference between the two is not about importance in any obvious sense: billions of people have lived and died without leaving a single sentence in the historical record, while a relatively small number of political events, battles, and rulers have generated thousands of volumes. That disparity is not neutral. It is a choice — and choices have reasons.

The Unknown Soldier and the Making of a Historical Event

This case shows selection at work: one death is chosen to stand for millions, and that choice is what turns an event into history.

On 11 November 1920, an unidentified British soldier was buried with full state ceremony in Westminster Abbey.1 Four bodies, exhumed from different battlefields of the Western Front, had been brought to a hut in Saint-Pol-sur-Ternoise, France; a blindfolded Brigadier General had selected one at random. The soldier’s identity was deliberately never established. The ceremony was attended by more than a million people lining the streets of London. The same battles had killed millions of men whose deaths were not selected for this ceremony, whose graves are known and marked, and whose deaths are not less real.

1.1 Carr’s Dialogue

The Unknown Soldier names the pattern: the past is not handed to the historian — the historian selects a tiny, freighted piece of it and calls that selection history. What follows traces selection through three frames — Carr’s dialogue, Ranke’s failed alternative, two non-European traditions that theorised selection earlier — before naming the four mechanisms that produce it. E. H. Carr is the first.

The term “historiography” means two things worth distinguishing: (1) the writing of history, and (2) the study of how history has been written — who wrote it, under what conditions, for what purposes, with what methods. The second sense is the philosophical question.

E.H. Carr opens What is History? (1961) with a formula:

“My first answer therefore to the question ‘What is history?’ is that it is a continuous process of interaction between the historian and his facts, an unending dialogue between the present and the past.” — E. H. Carr, What is History?, Chapter 12

The dialogue metaphor is not decorative. A dialogue is not a one-way transmission. The present shapes which questions we ask of the past; the past shapes how we understand the present. This is not relativism — Carr is not saying that any account of the past is as good as any other. He is saying that there is no account of the past that was produced from outside any present.

Carr’s provocation extends to the facts themselves. He distinguishes between historical facts (facts that historians have selected and judged significant enough to discuss) and the past as it was (the everything that happened). “The historian is necessarily selective,” he writes. “The belief in a hard core of historical facts existing objectively and independently of the interpretation of the historian is a preposterous fallacy.”3

This sounds radical. But consider: the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand on 28 June 1914 is unambiguously a historical fact. The assassination, on the same day, of a Serbian farmer whose name we do not know, is also a fact about the past — but no one calls it a historical fact. Not because it didn’t happen, but because no historian has made it the subject of a claim.

1.2 Von Ranke and the Dream of Objectivity

Carr’s nemesis (and the villain of his first chapter) is Leopold von Ranke, the 19th-century German historian who articulated the ideal of showing the past wie es eigentlich gewesen — as it actually was.4 Von Ranke wanted history freed from the moralising, the nationalist mythology, and the speculative philosophy that had characterised earlier historiography. He wanted evidence: documents, archives, primary sources. History should be grounded in what actually happened, not in what we wish had happened.

Ranke’s reform was an advance. The trouble is the phrase “as it actually was.” Ranke used it to describe a goal. But the goal is unreachable. Any account of the past involves selection, arrangement, and interpretation. Even a chronicle — a simple list of dated events — reflects choices about what counts as an event worth listing.

The myth of von Rankean objectivity is not that the past cannot be known. It is the myth that the historian can disappear from the account — that the past can speak for itself.

A note on Ranke himself: the figure Carr attacks is part real, part caricature. Specialist historians of historiography (Iggers, Krieger, Novick) point out that eigentlich in nineteenth-century German is closer to “essentially” or “in its own terms” than to “actually” in the modern English sense, and that Ranke was a Lutheran idealist who believed history could trace a divine purpose, not the naive positivist for whom facts speak for themselves. Whether the revisionist reading rehabilitates Ranke or whether Carr’s target was real enough that the rehabilitation overstates the case, is itself a continuing dispute in the field.5

1.3 Earlier Theorists of History: Ibn Khaldun and Sima Qian

Carr and Ranke are nineteenth- and twentieth-century European disputants in a much older argument. Two earlier non-European traditions theorised history with comparable rigour, and a course that takes its categories only from the European debate misses what those traditions saw.

The Tunisian-Andalusian scholar Ibn Khaldun, in the Muqaddimah (1377), is widely credited as the founder of historiography as a methodological discipline. His central concept, ʿaṣabiyyah — usually translated “social cohesion” or “group feeling” — is offered as the underlying explanatory variable in the rise and fall of dynasties: a tribal coalition with strong ʿaṣabiyyah conquers a sedentary city; over three or four generations, urban life corrodes its cohesion; a new coalition with stronger ʿaṣabiyyah succeeds it.6 What is striking for the present discussion is not the cyclic theory itself (which is contested) but the methodological apparatus Ibn Khaldun proposes for evaluating historical claims: the Muqaddimah opens with an explicit catalogue of the errors historians make — partisanship, credulity, ignorance of context, mistaking the impossible for the merely improbable, exaggeration of numbers — and a proposed corrective: every historical report must be checked against the structural conditions of the society in which it is alleged to have occurred. The procedure is a four-century anticipation of the source-criticism that will later be associated with Niebuhr and Ranke.

The Han Chinese historian Sima Qian (司馬遷, c. 145–86 BCE), in the Shiji (史記, Records of the Grand Historian), develops a different methodological apparatus. The Shiji organises history into five formats — benji (basic annals of rulers), biao (chronological tables), shu (treatises on institutions), shijia (hereditary houses), liezhuan (biographies of representative figures) — that together index the same events from multiple structural angles. Where Ibn Khaldun’s strength is causal analysis, Sima Qian’s is the explicit refusal of any single narrative line: by writing the same history five times in five formats, the Shiji shows that an event looks different from the perspective of dynastic legitimacy than from the perspective of institutional development than from the perspective of an individual life.7 Both traditions are not “anticipations” of European historiography; they are full-developed alternatives to it.

1.4 Selection and Significance

Why do some events become historical? Several mechanisms are in play:

Survival of evidence. We know what we have records of. Records survive unevenly: royal decrees, religious texts, military campaigns, official correspondence — these were stored, copied, and archived. The interior life of ordinary people, informal agreements, oral cultures — these mostly vanish. The archive is already a filter.

Institutional priorities. Historical scholarship is produced by universities, publishers, and archives — institutions with their own histories of who they admitted, what they funded, and what they considered worth studying. These priorities have systematically favoured certain kinds of history over others.

Narrative shape. Some events lend themselves to narrative — they have a clear beginning, middle, and end; clear actors; dramatic turning points. Others are too diffuse, too long, too unmarked by crisis to tell as a story. The long, slow deterioration of soil fertility in the Roman provinces is historically significant, but it is harder to narrate than the Battle of Actium.

Carlo Ginzburg’s The Cheese and the Worms (1976) reconstructs the cosmology of Menocchio, a 16th-century Italian miller, from the records of his Inquisition trials.8 It is a model of what is possible when historians look where they weren’t looking before — and a reminder of how dependent “ordinary life” history is on the accidental survival of official records.

Present concerns. What we want to know about the past is partly determined by what matters to us now. The explosion of scholarly attention to the history of gender, race, class, and sexuality since the 1970s was not driven by the discovery of new evidence. It was driven by political and social movements that changed what questions seemed important.

1.5 Questions

  1. If historical facts are selected rather than given, does that mean history is just fiction? What is the difference between the two?
  2. Is Carr right that the historian’s present always shapes the questions they ask? If so, is this a problem to be solved, or a feature to be acknowledged and worked with?
  3. Von Ranke’s ideal of showing history “as it actually was” has been criticised as naive. But is the alternative — accepting that history is always perspectival — a dangerous concession to relativism and manipulation?
  4. The daily life of a Roman slave is not in the historical record. Is that an epistemological problem (we can’t know it) or an ethical problem (we chose not to care)? Or both?

Is Carr’s Dialogue a Concession to Relativism?

Position A: Carr’s “unending dialogue between present and past” is correct, and it does not lead to relativism. The fact that the historian’s present shapes the questions asked does not mean that all historical answers are equally valid. Acknowledged perspectivalism, combined with rigorous method and transparent evidence, produces better history than the myth of Von Rankean objectivity.

Position B: Carr’s formula, taken seriously, is a concession to relativism that Carr himself does not want to make. Geoffrey Elton’s The Practice of History (1967) makes the case the lesson has so far suppressed: there is a knowable past, the documents constrain interpretation strongly, and Carr’s “dialogue” smuggles in a constructivism that, if pushed, makes it impossible to say that any account is mistaken.9 If the present shapes which “facts” become historical facts, and if the present keeps changing, then historical knowledge is inherently unstable — it shifts as the present shifts. The appropriate response is to defend the ideal of historical objectivity in the disciplined-method sense Elton specifies.

Choosing Position A commits you to specifying what disciplines acknowledged perspectivalism, and how, beyond the historian’s self-report. Choosing Position B commits you to saying which historians, in practice, have approached Elton’s standard, and what the rest of historical scholarship looks like by comparison.

Commit before we compare. Before the class discussion, write your verdict in two or three sentences — name the side you take and the price you accept for taking it. Then test your own answer:

  • Did you keep the two disciplines apart — the source-discipline both sides accept (documents, dating, comparison across independents) and the perspective-discipline they fight over? An answer that runs them together has not yet begun.
  • Position A: did you name what disciplines the acknowledged perspective, beyond the historian announcing that she has one?
  • Position B: did you name which historians have actually approached Elton’s standard — and what the rest of scholarship looks like measured against it?

2 Can we be objective about the past?

The question seems almost self-answering, and the history of historiography is littered with historians who thought so — and were wrong in exactly opposite directions. Half said: of course objectivity is possible; apply the methods, follow the evidence, and the truth will emerge. The other half said: of course it is impossible; you are a person, in a time and place, with interests and assumptions, writing about people and events that are no longer accessible to you directly. Both answers are too quick. “Objectivity is impossible” can mean several very different things, and not all of them are true.

The Bergier Commission and Switzerland’s WW2 Reckoning (1996–2002)

A history commissioned by the state, indicting the state, and fought over precisely because the stakes were present-day: that is the case this lesson turns on.

In December 1996, after sustained international pressure over dormant Swiss bank accounts, the Federal Council appointed an independent commission of historians (the UEK), chaired by the ETH Zürich economic historian Jean-François Bergier, and gave it full access to Swiss public and private archives by federal decree.10 Its findings, published across twenty-five volumes and a 2002 Final Report, indicted the country that had commissioned it: Swiss banks had taken in gold the Reichsbank looted from occupied national reserves and from individual victims, dental gold among it; Swiss refugee policy turned away an estimated 24,500 Jewish and other persecuted refugees at the border between 1938 and 1945, contributing to deaths it could have prevented; Swiss intelligence cooperated with Axis services more than postwar accounts admitted; Swiss firms produced for the Wehrmacht; and the celebrated defence of “neutrality” was, in important respects, a postwar reconstruction.11 The report drew fierce domestic resistance, much of it from the political right — and it now sits in every Swiss federal library and the school curricula of most cantons.

2.1 The Historikerstreit (1986–87) and the Catechism Debate (2020–22)

In 1986, the German historian Ernst Nolte published a newspaper essay suggesting that the Holocaust, while not to be minimised, was in part a response to the prior terror of Stalinist collectivisation, and that Auschwitz should be understood in the context of other twentieth-century mass atrocities.12 The essay triggered a prolonged controversy among German historians — the Historikerstreit, or historians’ dispute — in which Jürgen Habermas accused Nolte of attempting to “relativise” the Holocaust for nationalist political purposes.13 The debate was about whether comparative history was a legitimate method when applied to an event of unique moral weight, and about whether a historian’s political location determines the meaning of their historical claims. Nolte insisted he was engaging in objective comparative analysis; Habermas argued that no such analysis was politically innocent given the specific context of 1980s West Germany. Karl Mannheim’s relationism — the view that all historical knowledge is perspectival but not therefore arbitrary — was being tested in real time.14

The same dispute was relitigated three decades on. In April 2020, Germany’s Federal Commissioner against antisemitism, Felix Klein, called for the cancellation of an invitation to the Cameroonian philosopher Achille Mbembe to address the Ruhrtriennale festival, on the grounds that Mbembe’s parallels between Israeli policy and apartheid South Africa constituted Holocaust relativisation.15 From May 2021, Die Zeit published a sequence of essays under the heading Katechismus-Streit; A. Dirk Moses’s “The German Catechism” argued that comparative historians of the Holocaust were being silenced by a German civic catechism (Holocaust unique, comparison is relativisation).16 Friedländer, Zimmerer, Assmann, Diner, Neiman, and Rothberg responded across the German press; the dispute ran through 2022 without resolution.17 What the Historikerstreit, the Catechism Debate, and the Bergier Commission (info box above) all establish — in different national contexts, decades apart — is that the question of historical objectivity cannot be answered in the abstract because the stakes of any particular historical claim are always embedded in a present-day political situation.

2.2 Collingwood’s Re-enactment

R.G. Collingwood, in The Idea of History (1946), argues that historical knowledge differs in kind from scientific knowledge.18 In science, you study objects — things that exist independently of human minds. In history, you study actions — and actions are not mere physical events. They have an inside as well as an outside.

The outside of Julius Caesar’s crossing of the Rubicon in 49 BCE is a physical event: a man with an army moving across a river. The inside is Caesar’s decision, his reasons, his understanding of the situation. To understand the historical event is to understand the inside — and to understand the inside, the historian must re-enact Caesar’s thought in their own mind. Not imagine what Caesar was feeling, but reconstruct what he was thinking: what arguments, what evidence, what considerations were available to him and led to his choice.19

“All history is the history of thought.” — R.G. Collingwood, The Idea of History, Part V20

Collingwood is making two claims at once: about what history is, and about how it is known. History is not the study of past events but the study of past thinking, known through a kind of disciplined sympathetic reconstruction.

Collingwood’s re-enactment doctrine has been criticised: can we really “re-enact” the thoughts of people whose conceptual world was radically different from ours? Can a modern historian re-enact the thinking of a 13th-century Islamic philosopher, or an ancient Egyptian administrator? Perhaps the doctrine works better for some historical agents than others.

Cross-reference: The Arts unit’s lesson “What kind of knowledge does art give us?” discusses acquaintance knowledge — knowing what it is like to be in a state — as distinct from propositional knowledge about that state. Collingwood’s re-enactment is a form of acquaintance knowledge applied to historical persons: the historian attempts to know from the inside what the agent knew, not merely to describe it from without. Both units converge on the limits of purely propositional knowledge.

2.3 Thucydides vs. Herodotus

The contrast between the two great ancient Greek historians is the founding dispute in the philosophy of history. Herodotus (c. 484–425 BCE), the so-called “father of history,” collected stories, traditions, and accounts from his travels.21 He included divine intervention, fabulous creatures, and hearsay — he often reported things he did not believe, on the grounds that his job was to record what people said, not to adjudicate truth. His history is rich, capacious, and wonderfully human.

Thucydides (c. 460–400 BCE) was contemptuous of this approach. His account of the Peloponnesian War aims to be a “possession for all time,” not an entertainment for the moment. He strips out divine causality, exercises rigorous source criticism, and constructs causal explanations in terms of human rationality, power, and interest. He acknowledges that he has reconstructed the speeches in his history (“keeping as close as possible to the general sense of what was actually said”) — an extraordinary moment of methodological self-awareness.22

Which approach is better? Thucydides is more rigorous, more usable, more scientific in aspiration. But Herodotus’s willingness to record without fully endorsing preserves more of the ancient world’s texture and its people’s self-understanding. Both are doing something real.

2.4 The Myth of the View from Nowhere

Objectivity, in its ideal form, would require a perspective from nowhere — a standpoint outside all historical, cultural, and personal situatedness. This is the “God’s eye view,” the view from which all particular perspectives cancel out and reality is seen as it truly is.

The philosopher Thomas Nagel called this the “view from nowhere” in his 1986 book of the same name — and his point was not that it is desirable but that it is unreachable.23 For human knowers, there is always a somewhere.

But here is the distinction that matters: acknowledging that you have a perspective is not the same as saying all perspectives are equal. A German historian writing about the First World War in 1930 does not have the same perspective as a French historian writing about it in 1950. Their assumptions, their cultural memories, their prior commitments differ. These differences affect what they see and how they interpret it.

One position holds that acknowledged perspectivalism is not a concession to relativism but a methodological tool: knowing your position — what interests you might have, what stories you have been told, what you might want to find — allows you to be on guard against those distortions. The opposing position holds that this self-knowledge is at best therapeutic and at worst a licence for displaying one’s perspective rather than disciplining it.

2.5 Questions

  1. Collingwood says history is the history of thought, and the historian re-enacts past thinking. But can we really re-enact the thoughts of people from radically different cultures and times? What are the limits?
  2. Is the contrast between Thucydides and Herodotus really a contrast between rigour and richness? Or is Herodotus’s approach capturing something that Thucydides’s rigour necessarily excludes?
  3. Can a historian ever be more objective by acknowledging their perspective, rather than claiming to have none? What would that look like in practice?
  4. Is there a difference between a biased account and a perspectival account? If so, what is it?

Acknowledged Perspectivalism — or its Sceptics?

The body’s dyad: acknowledging perspective is not the same as saying perspectives are equal. Two positions divide the field.

Position A (acknowledged perspectivalism): The historian must name their own location — present-day, professional, national, political — as a precondition for serious historical work. Naming the perspective does not make all perspectives equal; it makes the historian accountable to the specific shape of their own. Collingwood’s re-enactment is one technique that runs on this commitment (the historian reconstructs the agent’s reasoning from the agent’s standpoint, not from a view from nowhere). The Bergier Commission, the Historikerstreit, and the German Katechismus debate all proceed on Position A’s premise: the historians could only do their work because they had explicit (and contested) accounts of whose history was at stake.

Position B (the perspectivalism-sceptic): Acknowledged perspectivalism is half a step away from the relativism it claims to refuse. If every account is shaped by where the historian stands, the structural patterns that yield the strongest historical inferences (military, fiscal, factional, demographic — Braudel’s longue durée) are the only level at which “history” remains accountable to evidence rather than to standpoint. Caesar’s reasoning at the Rubicon cannot be re-enacted; what we have is Suetonius, Plutarch, and the self-serving Commentarii,24 and reconstruction projects more than it recovers. The discipline survives by anchoring itself in patterns sustainable across perspectives.2526

Choosing Position A commits you to specifying what stops acknowledged perspectivalism from collapsing into “all accounts are equally valid given their location” — and to applying the test to a case (Bergier? Historikerstreit?) where two perspectives genuinely contradict each other. Choosing Position B commits you to saying what the historian gives up when structural history loses the individual decision, and whether that loss is epistemological or only aesthetic.

Commit before we compare. Before the class discussion, write your verdict in two or three sentences — name the side you take and the price you accept for taking it. Then test your own answer:

  • Did you take a case where two perspectives genuinely contradict (Bergier, the Historikerstreit) rather than one where they merely coexist? A position that only works on the easy cases has not yet been tested.
  • Position A: did you name what stops acknowledged perspectivalism from collapsing into “all accounts are equally valid given their location”?
  • Position B: did you say what the historian gives up when structural history loses the individual decision — and whether that loss is epistemological or only aesthetic?

3 How do historians actually know?

The historian cannot visit the past. They cannot interview Caesar or photograph the Somme in 1916. They work with traces — documents, objects, images, memories — that the past has left behind. The epistemological question is how much we can infer from traces, and how confident we can be in those inferences.

Carlo Ginzburg and the Inquisition Records of Domenico Scandella

Watch what makes this peasant knowable at all: the historian reaches him only through the records his persecutors kept. That is the case this lesson tests.

In 1976, the Italian historian Carlo Ginzburg published The Cheese and the Worms, a microhistory of a sixteenth-century Friulian miller named Domenico Scandella, known as Menocchio, who was tried twice by the Inquisition and eventually burned at the stake in 1599.27 What made Menocchio recoverable to history was the extraordinary detail of the Inquisition’s own records: the interrogators’ obsessive documentation of Menocchio’s cosmological views — he believed the universe had formed like cheese, with angels emerging as worms from the primordial matter — preserved the voice of an illiterate peasant across four hundred years. Ginzburg was explicit about what his study revealed about historical method: the richness of his evidence was a byproduct of persecution. Menocchio’s ideas were recorded precisely because the Church found them dangerous. For every Menocchio whose voice was accidentally preserved, thousands of contemporaries left no trace whatever.

3.1 Primary and Secondary Sources

The standard distinction: a primary source is a document or artefact from the time and place being studied — an eyewitness account, a contemporary newspaper, a government decree, a physical object. A secondary source is an interpretation produced later — a historian’s account, a textbook, a documentary.

The binary itself is largely a TOK-textbook frame; working historians use a more graded vocabulary. Marc Bloch, in Apologie pour l’histoire ou Métier d’historien (drafted 1941–1943, published posthumously 1949 as The Historian’s Craft), distinguished intentional witnesses (those who set out to inform posterity) from unintentional ones (parish registers, customs ledgers, court depositions, tax rolls), and argued that the unintentional sources are usually the more trustworthy because no one tried to shape them for the historian’s benefit.28 Ginzburg’s evidential reading extends this: the documents that recovered Menocchio were Inquisition transcripts — involuntary witnesses produced by an institution with no interest in posterity. The contemporary digital-archive turn complicates the binary further, since a “primary source” returned by a database query has already been filtered by the curators who assembled the corpus.

The distinction is useful but not as clean as it looks. A primary source is not automatically more reliable than a secondary one. Several problems arise:

Eyewitness unreliability. Psychological research on memory (Elizabeth Loftus’s work on memory malleability is the landmark here — see Eyewitness Testimony, 1979, and Loftus and Palmer, “Reconstruction of Automobile Destruction,” Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior 13, 1974) has demonstrated repeatedly that eyewitness accounts are not recordings.29 Memory is reconstructive, not reproductive. What people remember is shaped by what they were told afterward, by their emotional state at the time, by subsequent information, and by the stories that make sense. Eyewitness testimony is highly persuasive and highly fallible simultaneously.

The wreck of the Titanic (1912) is a useful case: survivors gave contradictory accounts of whether the ship broke in two before sinking. The wreck, when found in 1985, showed it had broken in two.30 Eyewitness testimony said otherwise — or rather, accounts divided, and the majority (in several oral history collections) said the ship sank intact.

The problem of the author. Every primary source was produced by someone, for a purpose, with an intended audience. Julius Caesar’s Gallic Wars is a primary source for the Roman conquest of Gaul — and also a piece of political propaganda written to justify Caesar’s command and enhance his reputation in Rome.31 The source has evidential value and must be read against the grain.

Walter Benjamin’s fragment “Theses on the Philosophy of History” (1940, written in exile from Nazi Germany) contains the unforgettable image: history is written by the victors, and the historian who “fans the spark of hope in the past” must “brush history against the grain.”32

The problem of the archive. Not everything was recorded; not everything recorded was preserved; not everything preserved is accessible. Derrida, in Archive Fever (Mal d’Archive, 1995), argues that the archive is not a neutral repository of the past but a political institution: what gets archived, who has the right to deposit and access records, and what gets destroyed are all exercises of power.33 The Haitian historian Michel-Rolph Trouillot disaggregates this problem into four distinct moments at which power produces silence: the making of sources, the making of archives, the making of narratives, and the making of history “in the final instance.”34

3.2 The Detective Model

Historical reasoning has been compared to detective work — and the comparison is illuminating. The logical structure is abductive reasoning, or inference to the best explanation: a term Gilbert Harman introduced in 1965, though the underlying idea goes back to C.S. Peirce.35 W.H. Walsh described this reasoning in historical contexts;36 Ginzburg, in “Clues: Roots of an Evidential Paradigm” (1979), developed it into a full account of the “conjectural” or “clues” paradigm of knowledge, tracing it from the tracking of animals, through medical diagnosis, to Sherlock Holmes and historical method.37 The historian, like the detective, does not have direct access to what happened. They have evidence — traces, clues, inconsistencies — and must reason to the most probable account of what happened.

The model has advantages. It is honest about the role of inference and imagination. It makes explicit that historical conclusions are probabilistic rather than certain. And it connects history to a broader tradition of abductive reasoning (inference to the best explanation) used across many domains.

The detective figure is closer to what Ginzburg called the evidential paradigm: reading symptoms — the involuntary trace, the inadvertent detail — the way Morelli read brushstrokes or a physician reads a body. Critics of the analogy press further: the historian does not only read clues left behind, the historian also assembles the case, decides what counts as a clue, and sets the stakes of the investigation. Hayden White’s Metahistory (1973) is the strongest version of this critique — the choice of plot structure (tragedy, romance, satire) is, on his account, already an interpretive act rather than a finding of the evidence.38

The case of Cleopatra VII of Egypt (69–30 BCE) illustrates the limits. Almost everything we know about her comes from sources written after her death, mostly by Roman authors, mostly hostile — she was the enemy they had defeated and the woman they wished to portray as a seductress and a threat. Plutarch’s account was written 120 years after her death.39 We have no contemporary Egyptian sources that she commissioned or endorsed. We know what her enemies chose to say about her, filtered through 150 years of subsequent retelling. The detective work here involves asking: what would a hostile Roman source leave out? What does the pattern of silence tell us?

3.3 Synthetic Media and the 21st-Century Doctored Source

The Zelensky Deepfake

The question this case feeds is whether deepfakes change the historian’s craft or merely intensify an old problem. Hold the fork, not the technical detail.

On 16 March 2022, three weeks into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, hackers compromised the Ukrainian television channel Ukraine 24 and broadcast a video of President Volodymyr Zelensky instructing Ukrainian forces to surrender. The same fake circulated on Facebook and on a hacked Ukrainian news website. It was crude — Zelensky’s head was disproportionate to his body, the lighting was off, his voice was slightly wrong — and Zelensky himself filmed a refutation within hours. Meta took the fake down the same day.40 But the historian’s question is not whether this fake worked; it is what happens once the cost of producing such a video falls toward zero. By 2024 the technical quality had reached the point where unaided detection became unreliable.

The Stalin photograph — Yezhov erased from the canal walk — is the canonical example of the manipulated historical source. The contemporary equivalent is of a different order: AI-generated synthetic media that can produce video and audio of historical figures saying things they never said. Forensic historians already encounter such material in online archives that will become the primary sources of future historians. The standard tools of source criticism — provenance, corroboration, internal consistency, comparison with independent sources — apply here, but they are no longer sufficient alone.

Two readings split here. On the first, deepfakes change the historian’s craft: the cost of fabrication has collapsed (in 1922 a forged document required a forger; in 2024 it required a prompt), the mechanism of transmission is opaque in a new way (a viral video with no chain of custody is not analogous to a forged letter with a paper trail), and the producer is a model whose outputs no individual is fully responsible for. On the second, deepfakes intensify but do not change Bloch’s old problem of the intentional witness — the techniques of provenance, corroboration, and comparison with independents extend to the new medium without a categorical break. Which reading is right is one of the questions the activity below presses indirectly.

3.4 Questions

  1. If primary sources are not automatically more reliable than secondary ones, what should historians prioritise? What makes a source trustworthy?
  2. The archive preserves what powerful institutions chose to keep. Does this mean history is inherently skewed toward the powerful? Or can historians compensate?
  3. Historical reasoning is described as inference to the best explanation. But what makes one explanation “best”? Is this an epistemic criterion, or does it smuggle in values?
  4. We know almost nothing about Cleopatra except through hostile sources. Should historians attempt a reconstruction, knowing it might be wrong, or acknowledge the limit and leave it blank?
  5. Do deepfakes change the historian’s craft (the cost of fabrication has collapsed, transmission is opaque in a new way, the producer is a model not an individual), or do they merely intensify Bloch’s old problem of the intentional witness?

Should Historians Attempt to Reconstruct Figures Like Cleopatra?

Position A: Historians should attempt reconstruction even in thin-evidence cases like Cleopatra. The alternative — silence — is itself a distortion, because silence is filled by mythology, film, and political projection. A carefully qualified reconstruction, with explicit acknowledgment of its limits and the hostile character of the available sources, is better history than the refusal to engage.

Position B: When the evidence is as thin and as systematically biased as it is for Cleopatra — no contemporary Egyptian sources, all accounts Roman and hostile, written over a century after her death — the historian’s intellectual duty is to acknowledge the limit and resist the temptation to fill it with plausible-sounding narrative.

Choosing Position A commits you to specifying what standard of evidence sufficiency triggers a reconstruction — and how the qualified reconstruction is to be distinguished from the mythology it replaces. Choosing Position B commits you to saying what fills the silence when the historian declines to, and whether the discipline can survive ceding those cases to film, novel, and political projection.

Commit before we compare. Before the class discussion, write your verdict in two or three sentences — name the side you take and the price you accept for taking it. Then test your own answer:

  • Did you ask which reader the history is written for — specialist or undergraduate — given that the qualifications survive the first and fall away for the second? An answer that ignores the transmission has not yet engaged the case.
  • Position A: did you name the evidence threshold that triggers a reconstruction — and how the qualified version stays distinct from the mythology it replaces?
  • Position B: did you say what fills the silence when the historian declines — and whether the discipline survives ceding Cleopatra to film, novel, and political projection?

4 Does the present shape how we see the past?

Of course it does. The question is how — and whether this shaping in this case is recovery (revisionism’s productive sense, in which the present supplies questions the past did not pose for itself) or distortion (Orwell’s case, in which the present rewrites the past to serve a current power). The dyad — recovery or distortion — is what the section asks the reader to apply.

The Removal of Edward Colston’s Statue in Bristol

The fork this case feeds is recovery or distortion: was the toppling a correction toward a fuller account of the past, or a present-day rewriting of it?

On 7 June 2020, during a Black Lives Matter protest in Bristol, a crowd pulled down a bronze statue of Edward Colston (1636–1721) — a Bristol-born merchant who served as deputy governor of the Royal African Company in 1689–1690 and was a shareholder for the dozen years 1680–1692 during which the company shipped some 84,000 African men, women, and children across the Atlantic. Roughly 19,000 of them died on the passage; survivors were branded on the chest with the company’s “RAC” mark, including children as young as six.41 The protesters daubed the toppled bronze with red and blue paint, knelt on its neck in deliberate reference to the murder of George Floyd nine days earlier, then rolled it down Anchor Road and pushed it into Bristol Harbour.42

The statue, by John Cassidy, had been erected on Colston Avenue in 1895 — 174 years after Colston’s death — at a moment when Bristol’s commercial elite wished to commemorate local philanthropy; its plinth named Colston as “one of the most virtuous and wise sons” of the city. For decades, efforts to add a plaque acknowledging the source of Colston’s wealth had been defeated by Bristol institutions, including the Society of Merchant Venturers (the historic guild whose membership had included Colston himself).

Four protesters — Rhian Graham, Milo Ponsford, Jake Skuse, and Sage Willoughby, the so-called Colston Four — were charged with criminal damage; on 5 January 2022 a jury at Bristol Crown Court acquitted all four, having been directed that a conviction would represent a disproportionate interference with their Article 10 right to freedom of expression.43 The Article 10 question is a question of free-expression law; the historiographical question underneath it is sharper. The original erection in 1895 was an act of selective historical narration, emphasising Colston’s almshouses and endowments while leaving the slave trade implicit. The removal in 2020 was, on one reading, an equivalent act of selection in the opposite direction; on another reading, it was a correction toward a fuller historical account that includes what 1895 chose to omit.

4.1 Hindsight Bias

Knowing how things turned out makes them seem inevitable in retrospect. This is hindsight bias — one of the most replicated findings in cognitive psychology, first experimentally documented by Baruch Fischhoff in “Hindsight ≠ Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment Under Uncertainty” (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 1.3, 1975) and later integrated into Kahneman’s broader account of cognitive biases (Thinking, Fast and Slow, 2011, Part III).4445 People who are told the outcome of an event consistently overestimate how predictable that outcome was. They construct a narrative that makes the outcome seem to flow naturally from the antecedent events, when in fact the outcome was deeply contingent.

The problem for history is that historians almost always know the outcomes. The historian writing about the July Crisis of 1914 knows that the crisis led to the First World War. This knowledge is almost impossible to bracket. Every decision by the Austrian government, every telegram from the Kaiser, every calculation by the Serbian Foreign Ministry gets read as a step toward war — because it was, in fact, a step toward war. But the participants didn’t know this; they were making decisions in radical uncertainty, miscalculating, bluffing, and misreading signals in real time.

A historian who reads 1914 through the lens of its outcome misunderstands the choices made.

The serious historiography of July 1914 has moved well beyond the general claim that “everyone has hindsight bias.” Fritz Fischer’s Griff nach der Weltmacht (1961) located the cause in deliberate German bids for continental hegemony and triggered the generation-long Fischer-Kontroverse; the controversy unfolded in a Cold War-era West Germany in which the question of national guilt was politically live, and several commentators on the controversy (Moses, Mombauer) have argued that the reception of Fischer cannot be cleanly separated from that context.46 Christopher Clark’s The Sleepwalkers (2012), by contrast, redistributed responsibility across all the chancelleries of Europe.47 The reading that its post-2008 reception was helped by an EU intellectual climate looking for a story of shared mismanagement is plausible but not established — Clark’s own argument turns on archival work in Vienna and Belgrade, and the book’s reception in Britain and France was at least as warm as in the EU institutions to which it is sometimes ascribed.

4.2 Revisionism and Its Uses

Historical revisionism is often heard as a slur — Soviet propaganda revised history, so revisionism is manipulation. As a scholarly practice it is the revision of older accounts in light of new evidence or new questions.

Sheila Rowbotham’s Hidden from History (1973) is a case in point.48 Rowbotham argued that conventional political and labour history had systematically ignored the experiences of women — not because the evidence didn’t exist, but because historians hadn’t looked for it and the institutional structures of the discipline had marginalised it.

Richard Evans, in In Defence of History (1997), distinguishes between legitimate revisionism (changing interpretations in light of evidence) and politically motivated distortion.49 The distinction is real, but harder to apply in practice than in theory — especially when you are embedded in the same ideological context as the revisionism you’re judging.

The Russian Revolution is perhaps the most striking example of history as interpretive battleground. The same sequence of events — the collapse of Tsarist rule, the Provisional Government, the October events of 1917 — has been described as a “popular uprising” (by Soviet historians and by many Western sympathisers), a “Bolshevik coup” (by anti-communist historians), and a “complex, multi-actor power struggle in a context of total war” (by historians attempting to bracket ideological commitments).50

4.3 Orwell’s Warning

George Orwell understood something important about the political stakes of controlling historical memory:

“Who controls the past controls the future; who controls the present controls the past.” — George Orwell, Nineteen Eighty-Four (1949), Part Three, Chapter 251

The novel’s Ministry of Truth (a masterpiece of Orwellian naming) employs Winston Smith to rewrite newspaper archives so that Party pronouncements are never contradicted by the historical record. When an ally becomes an enemy, the alliance is unmade. When a prediction fails, the prediction is unmade. The past is rewritten on demand, like a stage set turned around between acts.

Orwell’s novel is fiction; the practice it describes is historical fact. The most notorious example is Stalin’s doctored photographs: as political rivals were executed or fell out of favour, they were literally removed from official photographs, so that the image of a parade or a meeting would show fewer people than had actually been there.52

4.4 Questions

  1. Can a historian ever successfully bracket their knowledge of how events turned out? If not, is hindsight bias an unavoidable distortion, or can it be managed?
  2. Is all historical revisionism potentially legitimate, or are some narratives so well-established that challenging them requires exceptional evidence? Who decides which is which?
  3. Orwell’s dystopia is fictional, but the practices it describes (rewriting archives, removing people from photographs) have real historical instances. What mechanisms prevent this in democratic societies? Are they reliable?
  4. Can the present’s concerns improve our understanding of the past (by highlighting what was overlooked), or do they always distort it (by projecting contemporary categories backward)?

Does the Present Improve or Distort Historical Understanding?

Position A: Present concerns improve historical understanding. Feminist historiography recovered the history of women; Subaltern Studies recovered the history of colonised peoples; the history of labour recovered working-class experience.53 The past was always there; the present gave us new reasons to look for it.

Position B: Present concerns systematically distort. They import contemporary categories the past did not share (treating “race”, “sexuality”, or “the nation” as units of analysis when historical actors did not), privilege the outcomes present-day politics cares about over the full causal field, and select significance on present grounds while calling the result historical recovery.

Choosing Position A commits you to distinguishing a correction (feminist history) from a politically motivated distortion (the Soviet revision of Trotsky), and to specifying the criteria that mark the difference. Choosing Position B commits you to saying what historical inquiry uncoupled from present concerns would look like, and whether any actual historian has ever done it.

Commit before we compare. Before the class discussion, write your verdict in two or three sentences — name the side you take and the price you accept for taking it. Then test your own answer:

  • Did you decide whether “the present always shapes” is a confession (both sides agree) or a method (Position A asserts, Position B denies)? An answer that slides between the two senses has not yet begun.
  • Position A: did you give the criteria that mark a correction (feminist history) off from a politically motivated distortion (the Soviet revision of Trotsky)?
  • Position B: did you say what inquiry uncoupled from present concerns would look like — and whether any actual historian has ever done it?

5 Is history made by individuals or structures?

Tolstoy hands the second epilogue of War and Peace to this question — fifty pages of philosophy that most readers skip, which is where the novel does its most serious thinking. He argues that Napoleon was not the cause of the 1812 campaign; he was a puppet of forces he neither created nor understood, performing a role that history had already written. Carlyle, who argued the opposite with equal force, would have found this intolerable. There are two visions of history’s motor. In one, history is driven by exceptional individuals — their genius, their will, their decisions. In the other, history is driven by impersonal forces — economic pressures, social structures, demographic shifts, geographic constraints — and individuals are swept along.

The Assassination at Sarajevo and the Problem of Structural vs. Individual Causes

The case feeds one question: did individuals cause this war, or structures? Watch the wrong turn and the six other assassins — that is where the two answers pull apart.

On 28 June 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife Sophie were shot dead in Sarajevo by Gavrilo Princip, a nineteen-year-old Bosnian Serb.54 Princip was one of seven assassins positioned along the route, equipped with pistols, bombs, and cyanide capsules by the Ujedinjenje ili Smrt (“Union or Death”) network — the so-called Black Hand — a conspiratorial society linked to officers of Serbian military intelligence.55 The first attempt that morning failed: a bomb thrown by Nedeljko Čabrinović bounced off the Archduke’s car and wounded officers in the vehicle behind. The second succeeded only because the imperial driver, taking the planned route, was told mid-journey that the schedule had changed; he made a wrong turn into Franz Josef Street, stopped, and began to reverse — bringing the car to a halt directly in front of the café where Princip happened to be standing.56 A month later, on 23 July, Austria-Hungary issued a ten-point ultimatum to Serbia whose central demand (point 6) was that Austro-Hungarian officials be permitted to take part in the judicial investigation on Serbian soil — a demand designed to be unacceptable. Serbia accepted nine of the ten points; Austria-Hungary declared war anyway on 28 July.57 The war that followed involved thirty countries, killed roughly seventeen million people, and reshuffled the empires of four continents — an outcome wildly disproportionate to the original act. Historians have spent a century debating the causal structure of the outbreak. Christopher Clark’s The Sleepwalkers (2012) emphasised the agency of individual statesmen who made specific choices in July 1914 that they need not have made;58 A. J. P. Taylor had argued decades earlier that the war was the product of rigid mobilisation timetables that no individual controlled.59 Marxist historians locate the cause in imperial competition for markets and resources, making the specific assassination almost incidental. If Princip had missed, the Ujedinjenje ili Smrt network had six other assassins along the route that morning, and the broader programme would have furnished further occasions. The remaining contingency is the wrong turn: a chance route change that brought the car to a halt three metres from one specific assassin.

5.1 The Great Man Theory

Thomas Carlyle stated the individualist thesis with characteristic force:

“The history of the world is but the biography of great men.” — Thomas Carlyle, On Heroes, Hero-Worship, and the Heroic in History (1841)60

Carlyle meant this seriously. Napoleon is not an expression of larger historical forces; he is the cause of a new historical configuration. Without Napoleon, Austerlitz doesn’t happen, the Civil Code doesn’t happen, the redrawing of Europe doesn’t happen.

The view has obvious appeal. It explains the felt importance of individual decisions. It coheres with our ordinary moral intuitions: we hold people responsible for what they do, which implies their actions matter. And it fits the biographical and narrative forms that dominate historical writing.

5.2 Marx’s Counter

Marx’s counter is not that individuals don’t matter, but that the conditions within which individuals act determine what is possible:

“Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under self-selected circumstances, but under circumstances existing already, given and transmitted from the past.” — Karl Marx, The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte (1852), Chapter I61

For Marx, the real drivers of history are economic structures — the relations of production, the conflict between classes, the material interests that shape what people want and what they can imagine wanting. Napoleon couldn’t have done what he did if the conditions — the breakdown of the Old Regime, the revolutionary mobilisation of the bourgeoisie, the armies that the Revolution created — hadn’t existed.

5.3 Tolstoy’s Critique

Leo Tolstoy, in the second epilogue to War and Peace (1869), pursues this argument with striking philosophical force. He is writing about Napoleon and the campaign of 1812, and his claim is that the attribution of historical causality to great individuals is a systematic illusion:62

“Kings are the slaves of history. History, that is, the unconscious, swarmlike life of mankind, uses every moment of a king’s life as an instrument for its purposes.” — Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace, Book IX, Chapter 1, trans. Pevear & Volokhonsky63

Hegel offers a synthesis: “world-historical individuals” (Napoleon being his prime example) act from their own ambitions, but their ambitions happen to align with the next stage in the development of Spirit. They are the instruments of Reason without knowing it — what Hegel calls “the cunning of reason” (List der Vernunft). They think they are pursuing personal goals; they are actually enacting History.64

Tolstoy’s image is of a ship moving through water. The wake seems to be caused by the ship’s propeller — but the propeller is itself driven by the engine, which is driven by the coal, which was dug by miners, and so on. Cutting the causal chain anywhere and calling that the cause is arbitrary. Napoleon’s order to cross the Niemen in June 1812 was caused by a thousand antecedent conditions that Napoleon did not control.65

5.4 Counterfactual History

The question of whether individuals or structures drive history can be tested (partially) through counterfactual history: what would have happened if a key individual had acted differently, or not been there?66

If Hitler had been killed in 1937 — before the Anschluss, before Munich, before the invasion of Poland — would the Second World War still have happened? Structural historians tend to say yes: the conditions for European war (German revanchism, the economic effects of the Versailles settlement, the instability of the Weimar system, the weakness of collective security arrangements) were in place and would have produced some kind of major conflict even without Hitler. Individualists say no: the specific timing, scale, and ideology of the war was Hitler’s; without him, the history looks radically different, perhaps no large European war at all.67

There is no way to run the experiment. The arguments forced by counterfactual questions expose the assumptions embedded in our normal causal narratives.

5.5 The Hierarchy of Causes

Behind the agency-versus-structure dispute sits a more technical problem the lesson has so far left implicit: how does a historian sort the many things that contributed to an event into an ordered explanation? E. H. Carr, in the load-bearing fourth chapter of What is History?, calls this the historian’s professional task — to “establish some hierarchy of causes which would fix their relation to one another,” and “to decide which cause, or which category of causes, should be regarded ‘in the last resort’ or ‘in the final analysis’… as the ultimate cause, the cause of all causes.”68 A list of twelve causes of the Russian Revolution earns a second; ranking them earns a first. The ranking is interpretive: Gibbon ranks barbarism and religion at the top of Rome’s fall; the Whigs rank constitutional liberty at the top of British prosperity; Marxists rank economic structure.

Richard Evans, responding to Carr in the fifth chapter of In Defence of History, sharpens the conceptual machinery. A cause may be necessary (“if A had not happened, then B could not have happened”) or sufficient (“A happening was enough to make B happen”); historical events are typically overdetermined, meaning “they may have several sufficient as well as necessary causes, any one of which might have been enough to trigger the event on its own.”69 So the Sarajevo question divides cleanly. Was the assassination a necessary cause of the First World War? Almost certainly not — the alliance system and mobilisation timetables made some major continental war highly likely, perhaps inevitable, by 1914. Was it a sufficient cause? On its own, no — it would have produced no war without the Austro-Hungarian decision to use it as a pretext, the German blank cheque, the Russian mobilisation, the British failure to deter. Was the war then overdetermined? Carr would say yes — broader trends were always more important than the contingency of one Bosnian Serb’s marksmanship. Evans warns against letting overdetermination collapse into fatalism, since the historian’s hierarchy is a defeasible interpretation rather than a law.

5.6 Questions

  1. Is the Great Man theory simply false, or does it capture something real about historical causation that structural accounts miss?
  2. If individuals are shaped by the historical conditions that produced them, in what sense are they morally responsible for their actions?
  3. Tolstoy’s argument that Napoleon was “history’s slave” seems to imply determinism. If history is fully determined by structural forces, is there anything for an individual to do?
  4. What can counterfactual history tell us? Is it legitimate as a historical method, or does it confuse empirical history with speculative fiction?

If Princip Had Missed, Would the War Still Have Come?

This question is sometimes treated as a matter of emphasis. It is not. Choose.

Use the vocabulary the body just supplied (necessary / sufficient / overdetermined).

Position A (the war was overdetermined): The assassination was a sufficient trigger but not a necessary one — the structural conditions (imperial rivalry, alliance commitments, mobilisation timetables) overdetermined a major European war in 1914. If Princip had missed, another spark would have lit the same fuel. Individual agency shapes the texture of history (whose name is on the assassination, whose face is on the coin) but not the direction.

Position B (the assassination was both necessary and sufficient for this war): The structural conditions made some major war probable, but the specific war that came — its timing, its alliance structure, its ideology, its genocide — depended on the assassination and the choices that followed it. If Hitler had been killed in 1937, the structural conditions would have remained, and what came in their wake would have been a different war or no large European war at all. Necessary-and-sufficient causation, on this view, is the right frame for historical events, even if not for the abstract question “would there have been a major European war”.

Choosing Position A commits you to explaining why we hold individuals morally responsible for historical crimes if structural forces were the primary cause. Choosing Position B commits you to specifying which historical events satisfy both necessity and sufficiency, and to avoiding the implication that all of history is a sequence of accidents.

Commit before we compare. Before the class discussion, write your verdict in two or three sentences — name the side you take and the price you accept for taking it. Then test your own answer:

  • Did you use the vocabulary cleanly — necessary, sufficient, overdetermined — and not switch register silently between “a major war” and “this war”? An answer that lets those two questions blur together has not yet begun.
  • Position A: did you explain why we hold individuals morally responsible for historical crimes if structural forces were the primary cause?
  • Position B: did you name which historical events satisfy both necessity and sufficiency — without making all of history a sequence of accidents?

6 Who gets to tell history?

“History is written by the victors.” The phrase is attributed to Churchill, then denied, then re-attributed — appropriately enough for a saying about the unreliability of historical record.70 But whoever said it, the insight runs deep. History has traditionally been told by the literate about the literate, by the powerful about the powerful, and by the victorious about their victories. The question of who narrates is not separate from the question of what is known. The deeper claim the section will press: naming is not neutral; the linguistic community whose connotations decide is the contested object.

The Mohrenkopf: A Swiss Confection’s Contested Name

This case asks who decides what a name means: the fork is whether retiring the name is overdue correction or an imported framework.

The Mohrenkopf (literally “Moor’s head”) is a chocolate-covered marshmallow confection produced by various Swiss manufacturers since at least the 1900s.71 The name and the confection’s appearance — brown chocolate covering, white interior — have been criticised since the 1990s as racially derogatory, and demands for renaming intensified during the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests. On 10 June 2020, Migros announced it would withdraw the Othello-brand Mohrenkopf produced by Confiserie Dubler (Waltenschwil, Aargau) from the two Zurich-region branches that had carried it, citing the racial connotations of the name; Migrolino followed in July 2020, as did Spar and Volg.72 The Dubler family — third-generation makers, with the current generation Robert Dubler — issued a public defence; Dubler direct sales actually increased after the Migros decision through alternative retailers and SVP-led “buy a Mohrenkopf” campaigns. Different Migros co-operatives publicly disagreed. The dispute extended beyond chocolate: the Mohren-Apotheke in Zurich was renamed Apotheke 6004 in 2022; the Mohren-Apotheke in Solothurn renamed itself in 2023; the Mohrenwirt restaurant in Bern publicly defended its name; the historian Hans Fässler has documented Swiss commercial use of the Mohren iconography back to the seventeenth century.73 Two competing positions structure the dispute: that the name encodes a historical racial taxonomy (the seventeenth-century Mohrenpfeife tobacconist signs, the Tropenmuseum-style human display imagery) that should be retired (BLM, anti-racism organisations, the Allianz gegen Rassismus statement of 2021), and that the name has been a politically innocuous part of Swiss chocolate culture for over a century and that retiring it is the imposition of an American-style discourse on a different Swiss culture (Confiserie Dubler, SVP, Weltwoche).

6.1 Wounded Knee: “Battle” or “Massacre”?

The 1890 Wounded Knee event in South Dakota is the canonical Anglophone example of the same naming question the Mohrenkopf raises in Swiss confectionery. On 29 December 1890, United States Army troops of the 7th Cavalry Regiment surrounded a camp of Lakota Sioux at Wounded Knee Creek and, after the discharge of a single rifle in a botched disarmament, opened fire — including with four Hotchkiss rapid-fire mountain guns positioned on the rise above the camp — killing between 250 and 300 Lakota men, women, and children, and pursuing fleeing non-combatants along the creek for several kilometres.74 Twenty soldiers received the Medal of Honor for their actions that day. For decades, the event was described in American history textbooks and military records as the “Battle of Wounded Knee.” Dee Brown’s Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee (1970), written entirely from Native American sources and perspectives, was among the first works to use the word “massacre” consistently and to show the event from the perspective of the Lakota.75 The question of which word applies is not merely semantic: “battle” implies two armed parties in military contest; “massacre” implies the killing of the largely unarmed. The underlying facts are not in serious dispute among modern historians. A band of Miniconjou Lakota under Spotted Elk had surrendered to the 7th Cavalry the previous evening; on the morning of 29 December the troopers were confiscating weapons. According to the standard reconstruction, a deaf Lakota man called Black Coyote refused to give up his Winchester rifle, which discharged in the scuffle as soldiers tried to take it. The opening shot triggered fire from the surrounding troopers and from the Hotchkiss guns; the shells fell into a tipi camp full of women and children. Soldiers then pursued fleeing non-combatants for several kilometres along Wounded Knee Creek. The Medals of Honor have never been formally revoked, though a congressional resolution calling for their rescission has been introduced multiple times.

6.2 History from Above and Below

The phrase “history from below” (popularised by E.P. Thompson and other British Marxist historians in the 1960s and 70s) describes the project of recovering the experiences of ordinary people — workers, peasants, enslaved people, women, colonised populations — who have been largely absent from traditional historiography.76 This is not merely a matter of inclusivist politics; it is an epistemological claim. The Industrial Revolution understood only from the perspective of factory owners and government ministers is a different object from the Industrial Revolution that includes the 14-hour day in a textile mill at the age of 12.

6.3 Subaltern Studies and Its Limits

The Subaltern Studies collective, a group of Indian historians convened by Ranajit Guha in the early 1980s, set out to recover the history of South Asian peoples from a perspective not filtered through colonialism.77 Their central question, taken up by Gayatri Chakravorty Spivak in her influential essay “Can the Subaltern Speak?” (1988), is bleaker than it sounds: can the historically subordinated speak in their own voice at all, or is every attempt to record their perspective already conditioned by the frameworks of the dominant?78

Spivak’s answer is uncomfortable: in important ways, no. The subaltern’s voice enters the historical record through documents produced by colonial administration, by mission records, by legal proceedings — all of which impose categories, translate into foreign languages, and select what is worth recording.

Fernand Braudel and the Annales school (founded in France in 1929) pursued a different form of “history from below” — not social but structural.79 Braudel’s The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Philip II (1949) attends to climate, geography, trade routes, and demographic cycles over centuries.80 Kings and battles appear only in the final third of a vast work, as ripples on a deep structural surface.

Trouillot pushes the difficulty one step further. Examining the Haitian Revolution of 1791–1804 — the only successful slave revolt in modern history, which produced the second independent state in the Americas — he argues that the events “entered history with the peculiar characteristic of being unthinkable even as it happened.”81 His claim is not that no European could perceive the revolt: the August 1791 uprising in the Plaine du Nord was reported in the French press within weeks; the Société des Amis des Noirs (Brissot, Grégoire, Condorcet) had already argued for the political capacity of free people of colour; the civil commissioner Léger-Félicité Sonthonax issued a general emancipation decree in Saint-Domingue on 29 August 1793; and Wordsworth’s 1802 sonnet to Toussaint Louverture (“Thou hast left behind / Powers that will work for thee…”) is exactly the kind of acknowledgment a strong “unthinkability” thesis would predict to be impossible.82 Trouillot’s narrower and more defensible claim is that the dominant historiographical and political vocabularies of the era could not accommodate sustained Black political self-government as a normal political event of the kind to be analysed alongside, say, the American or French revolutions; it could be registered only as slave disorder, atrocity, or footnote. The silence in the historical record on this reading is partly archival, partly conceptual: certain things were written down only in the registers (deviation, anomaly, racialised violence) that the dominant categories would admit — and after 1804 the new Haitian state was met with a near-total commercial and diplomatic embargo that did much of the rest of the silencing.83

6.4 The Australian Dictionary of Biography

Since the 1990s, the Australian Dictionary of Biography has undertaken the systematic recovery of Aboriginal Australian histories — an effort that requires developing new methodological approaches, because the evidence does not conform to the conventions of European archival history.84 Oral traditions, kinship structures, and material culture become primary sources. The epistemological challenges are significant: how do you cite oral testimony? How do you adjudicate between conflicting oral traditions? How do you recover history from peoples whose archives are landscapes and stories rather than documents?

The challenge is not specific to Australia; it applies wherever colonial history has displaced or destroyed indigenous documentary traditions.

6.5 Questions

  1. “History from below” is sometimes described as a political project masquerading as a historical one. Is it? And if so, does that compromise its epistemological validity?
  2. Spivak asks whether the subaltern can speak. What would it mean to answer “no” to this question? Does the answer have practical implications for how history should be written?
  3. When there is a dispute about whether to call an event a “battle” or a “massacre,” is this a question about facts, language, or politics? Can these be disentangled?
  4. The Annales school argued that geography and climate are more important historical forces than events and individuals. Does this view risk making human agency — including the decisions that led to atrocities — seem less significant than it is?

Should Migros Have Stopped Selling the Mohrenkopf?

The case is in the info-box above. On 10 June 2020 Migros withdrew the Dubler Mohrenkopf from the Zurich-region branches that had carried it; Migrolino, Spar, and Volg followed; different Migros co-operatives publicly disagreed; Dubler’s direct sales increased after the withdrawal. The 1890 Wounded Knee naming dispute (treated above in the body) raises the same logical question in a much more morally weighted historical register; the Mohrenkopf dispute raises it in a Swiss-everyday commercial register that students have eaten through.

Position A: Migros was right, and the Mohrenkopf should be renamed across all Swiss confectionery. The name encodes a historical racial taxonomy whose iconographic genealogy (the seventeenth-century Mohrenpfeife signs, the colonial-display imagery) is documented; the political innocence claimed for it is the political innocence of dominant groups for whom names that do not name them never sting. The same logic that finally got “Battle of Wounded Knee” replaced by “Massacre at Wounded Knee” in American textbooks should get the Mohrenkopf renamed in Swiss confectioneries.

Position B: Migros overreacted, and the Mohrenkopf should not have been withdrawn. The name has been used for a century in Swiss-German commercial culture without the racial connotations now attributed to it; the campaign against it is the importation into Switzerland of a U.S.-specific (BLM 2020) framework whose appropriateness in the Swiss context has not been argued so much as assumed. Public defence of the Dubler product was not a pro-racism reaction; it was a refusal to let extra-Swiss vocabularies dictate Swiss commercial nomenclature. The Wounded Knee parallel is not exact: that case turned on the description of an actual atrocity, where the underlying facts are not in dispute and the lexical choice (battle vs. massacre) substantively misdescribes the asymmetry of force.

Choosing Position A commits you to saying where the principle stops: which longstanding Swiss commercial names should be reviewed for similar reasons, and who decides. Choosing Position B commits you to explaining why the structurally similar “battle/massacre” choice in Wounded Knee was rightly resolved in favour of “massacre” — and what is different about the Swiss confectionery case beyond the personal cost of changing one’s habits.

Commit before we compare. Before the class discussion, write your verdict in two or three sentences — name the side you take and the price you accept for taking it. Then test your own answer:

  • Did you name which linguistic community’s connotations you are letting decide — majority Swiss-German speakers, or the wider community including Black Swiss residents on record for decades? An answer that does not name the constituency has not yet begun.
  • Position A: did you say where the principle stops — which longstanding Swiss commercial names get reviewed, and who decides?
  • Position B: did you explain why “battle/massacre” was rightly resolved as massacre at Wounded Knee — and what is different here beyond the cost of changing one’s habits?

7 Can history be a science?

The ambition to make history scientific is old — and old ambitions tend to harden into either embarrassing failures or quiet transformations. The French positivist Auguste Comte, in the 19th century, envisioned a science of society that would include historical laws analogous to physical laws: history as physics, with wars and revolutions playing the role of gravitational collapse and orbital mechanics.85 The project has not succeeded in any form that Comte would recognise. The most recent attempt is considerably more sophisticated.

Peter Turchin and the Prediction of Political Instability

This case tests whether history can predict like a science: hold the question of whether Turchin’s 2020 forecast was a genuine prediction or a retrospective fit.

In 2010, the mathematical biologist Peter Turchin published a paper claiming that a quantitative model of American political history could predict peaks of political instability approximately fifty years in advance, and that by this model the United States was heading toward severe instability around 2020.86 The paper attracted little academic attention at the time. After the convergent crises of 2020–21 — the COVID-19 pandemic, the murder of George Floyd and the protests that followed, and the 6 January 2021 storming of the Capitol — Turchin’s model was widely cited as having been confirmed; sceptics pointed out that “political instability around 2020” is loose enough that almost any disruption in that window would have looked like confirmation, and that the prediction was retrospectively picked out as successful from a wider set of Turchin’s claims that did less well. His approach — which he calls cliodynamics — uses mathematical analysis of long-run historical data on wages, inequality, elite overproduction, and state capacity to generate falsifiable predictions about political cycles.87 Karl Popper argued that history could not be a science because it did not generate testable predictions.88 Turchin’s project directly challenges Popper by attempting precisely such predictions.

7.1 The Annales School’s Ambition

The Annales school — named for the journal Annales d’histoire économique et sociale founded by Lucien Febvre and Marc Bloch in 1929 — represented the most sustained attempt to make history scientific by importing the methods of the social sciences.89 Quantitative data, long-term structural analysis, interdisciplinary borrowing from geography, economics, and demography: these were the tools of a historical science that would replace the narrative of events with the analysis of structures.

The achievement is genuine. Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie’s Montaillou (1975) reconstructed the daily life of a 14th-century Cathar village from Inquisition records with a density of social and cultural detail that narrative history could not have achieved.90 Braudel’s Mediterranean is a monument of structural ambition. The programme also has limits: structures cannot account for everything, and the particular decisions of individuals in particular moments — the decisions that opened and closed possibilities — resist structural analysis.

7.2 Cliodynamics

Peter Turchin, a Russian-American ecologist turned historian, has proposed a discipline he calls cliodynamics — the mathematical modelling of historical dynamics.91 His central claim, developed in Ages of Discord (2016) and earlier works, is that political instability in complex societies follows discernible cycles of roughly 50 years, driven by factors like elite overproduction (too many aspirants for too few elite positions) and popular immiseration.92

Turchin offered a prediction in 2010: American society would experience a peak of political instability around 2020. The US Capitol attack of 6 January 2021 is, to his supporters, a confirmation.

The analogy Turchin uses is meteorology: we cannot predict tomorrow’s weather with certainty, but we can say with confidence that hurricane season peaks in autumn and that certain pressure systems produce predictable patterns. Historical prediction is pattern-finding, not mechanical extrapolation.

Historical data is fragmentary and imprecisely measured. The categories used (what counts as “political instability”? what counts as an “elite”?) are already interpretive. Selecting which variables to model imports assumptions about which causes matter.

7.3 What Would Historical Falsifiability Look Like?

Popper argued that the social sciences should be held to the same standard of falsifiability he applied to natural science.93 A historical claim is genuinely scientific only if it could, in principle, be shown to be false by evidence. By this criterion, many historical “explanations” are not explanations at all: they are post-hoc rationalisations that could accommodate any outcome.

But applying this criterion rigorously creates problems. Historical events are unique; you cannot repeat the experiment. Historical causes are multiply realised; the same outcome can arise from different configurations of factors. The range of relevant evidence is potentially unlimited. This doesn’t mean history can’t be rigorous — it means that the kind of rigour appropriate to it is different from the rigour appropriate to physics.

7.4 Hayden White and the Tropology of Historical Narrative

Hayden White’s Metahistory: The Historical Imagination in Nineteenth-Century Europe (1973) poses the most philosophically radical challenge to the idea that historical narrative mirrors the past.94 White argues that historians do not simply select and arrange the facts of the past — they impose narrative form on what is, in itself, a formless chronicle of events. And the form they impose is tropological: it follows the deep structures of literary genres — romance (progress toward an ideal), tragedy (inevitable decline), comedy (reconciliation of conflicting forces), satire (ironic distance from any redemptive narrative).95

These are not decorative choices. They are constitutive: the emplotment of the past determines what counts as an event, what counts as a cause, what counts as resolution. Ranke’s narrative of the German nation is Romantic in White’s sense; Marx’s narrative of history is tragicomic (tragedy of class struggle resolving in communist reconciliation); Burkhardt’s narrative of Renaissance Italy is satirical.96 The deep narrative structure is chosen before the evidence is examined, not derived from it.

White is not saying historians invent the past. He is saying that the intelligibility of historical narrative — its explanatory coherence — is a literary achievement, not a reflection of how things actually were. The “facts” constrain the story, but they underdetermine it.

White’s Metahistory is demanding but short in its central argument (the Introduction is the essential part). His later essays, collected in Tropics of Discourse (1978) and The Content of the Form (1987), develop the implications for historiography and the philosophy of history.9798 He is not a sceptic about historical knowledge — he is arguing for a more honest account of what historical knowledge is and how it is constructed.

The challenge this poses: if historical narrative is always already emplotted — if the explanatory coherence of a history is a formal achievement rather than a discovery — then what is the criterion for distinguishing good history from bad? White’s own answer: not correspondence to reality (which on his account all competent histories share, to varying degrees) but the quality of the formal choices — their internal consistency, their fit with the evidence, and the historian’s awareness of their own emplotment. White’s critics (Carlo Ginzburg, Perez Zagorin, Allan Megill) reply that this risks letting formal coherence stand in for evidential discipline — and that the choice of plot structure is not a different kind of choice from the choice of which body of evidence to consult.

7.5 History as Narrative and the Limits of Prediction

The Malthus and Turchin cases illuminate something beyond the failure of specific models: they are stories about the difficulty of escaping narrative. Malthus told a story about geometric population growth and arithmetic food production; the story had a beginning (population pressure), a middle (insufficient food), and an end (catastrophe).99 The story was wrong not because the narrative was incoherent but because reality is not narrated — it does not follow the arc of even well-reasoned stories.

This is the “narrative fallacy” that Daniel Kahneman identifies — the human tendency to construct retrospective stories that make events seem inevitable and predictable, and to extrapolate those stories forward.100 History is particularly vulnerable to the narrative fallacy because it is narrated: we experience it in the form of stories with causes, agents, and outcomes. White’s tropological analysis and Kahneman’s narrative fallacy arrive at the same point from different directions.

7.6 Questions

  1. If historical patterns like those Turchin identifies are real, does that mean human societies are less free than we think? Or does identifying the pattern give us the means to change it?
  2. Popper’s falsifiability criterion is designed for the natural sciences. Is it the right criterion for history? What alternative criteria of rigour might be more appropriate?
  3. The Annales school wanted to replace narrative with structure. But can history do without narrative? Is there something that narrative explanation provides that structural explanation cannot?
  4. Cliodynamics predicted political instability in the US around 2020. The events of 2020–21 seem to confirm this. Is this genuine scientific prediction, or post-hoc fit? How would you distinguish them?

Can History Be a Science?

The two positions are arguing about a real boundary. Pick one.

Position A: History cannot be a science, in any sense that matters. The mark of science is the ability to generate testable, falsifiable predictions about independent cases. History studies unique, unrepeatable events; no two political upheavals are close enough to identical to allow genuine experimental comparison; and the narrative form that makes history intelligible is precisely what distinguishes it from scientific explanation.

Position B: History can achieve the core epistemic virtues of science — systematic method, transparent evidence, testing of hypotheses against independent data, and in principle predictive power. Turchin’s quantitative models make genuine falsifiable predictions.

Choosing Position A commits you to identifying what exactly it is about science that history cannot replicate, and to defending this position against the objection that much of what we call science (cosmology, palaeontology, evolutionary biology) also deals with unrepeatable events. Choosing Position B commits you to specifying what rigorous historical method actually requires, and to explaining why Hayden White’s tropological analysis — that historical narrative is always already a literary construction — does not undermine the scientific aspiration at its root.

Commit before we compare. Before the class discussion, write your verdict in two or three sentences — name the side you take and the price you accept for taking it. Then test your own answer:

  • Did you say what evidence would falsify your account — and refuse the move that claims the prestige of science while quietly exempting itself from falsifiability? An answer that ducks the standard of accountability has not yet begun.
  • Position A: did you identify what exactly science requires that history cannot replicate — and survive the objection that cosmology, palaeontology, and evolutionary biology study unrepeatable events too?
  • Position B: did you say what rigorous historical method requires — and why Hayden White’s “narrative is always already literary construction” does not sink the scientific aspiration?

8 What is history for?

Many historians, Geoffrey Elton most forcefully in The Practice of History, resist the question on instinct. History is for knowing. Full stop. On this view, the demand that history serve a purpose — build national pride, teach lessons, provide warnings — is the first step toward distorting it. The instinct catches something real: history put into service of a present cause does tend to be selected and framed by that cause. But it is also incomplete. History is not, in fact, a neutral intellectual exercise pursued in isolation. It is used — by states, by communities, by individuals — for purposes that go beyond the disinterested pursuit of knowledge, and the discipline’s own institutional existence (state-funded universities, school curricula, public commemoration) is bound up with those uses. The unity claim of this section: history is in fact used; the discipline’s task is to say which uses survive its standards (memory, prevention, justice, public commemoration) and which require the discipline to relax them.

Primo Levi and the Problem of Testimony at the Limits of Experience

This case sets up the testimony problem the lesson turns on: the survivors who can speak are not the ones who saw the worst.

Primo Levi arrived at Auschwitz-Birkenau in February 1944 and was selected for labour rather than immediate gassing on the basis of his chemistry qualifications. He survived the camp, returned to Turin, and spent the rest of his life writing about what he had witnessed. In his final book, The Drowned and the Saved (1986), Levi grappled with a problem that goes to the heart of the relationship between memory and historical knowledge: the survivors are not the true witnesses. Those who reached “the bottom” — those who had experienced the innermost circle of the camp, including the Sonderkommandos who had worked in the crematoria — had almost all been killed before liberation, precisely because the SS could not afford survivors with that knowledge. Those who survived, like Levi, were by definition those who had not experienced the worst of it. As Levi puts it:

We survivors are not only an exiguous but also an anomalous minority: we are those who by their prevarications or abilities or good luck did not touch bottom. Those who did so, those who saw the Gorgon, have not returned to tell about it or have returned mute, but they are the “Muslims”, the submerged, the complete witnesses, the ones whose deposition would have a general significance. They are the rule, we are the exception.101

8.1 Memory, Identity, and the Nation

Nations are, in Benedict Anderson’s famous phrase, “imagined communities” — and historical memory is one of the primary materials from which that imagination is constructed.102 The myth of national origin, the founding moments, the defining traumas and triumphs — these are the stories through which a people becomes a people. France’s Revolution; America’s founding documents; Israel’s memory of the Holocaust; the Ottoman/Turkish debates over the Armenian genocide; the Partition of British India in 1947. Pierre Nora’s Les lieux de mémoire — “sites of memory,” ranging from Verdun to the Marseillaise to the school textbook — names the institutional and physical anchors through which collective memory is held in place once living memory has receded.103 History is here in the service of identity.

Shared historical memory binds communities, transmits values, and creates the solidarity that makes collective action possible. The dangers arise when the memory is selective in ways that exclude or demean, when it involves the denial of atrocities, or when it hardens into a mythology that cannot be questioned without appearing to attack the community.

8.2 Holocaust Memory and Moral Duty

Levi’s witness-problem (info-box) frames the difficulty: the survivors are not the true witnesses, and historical knowledge of the camps depends on second-hand and inferential reconstruction at the very point where the moral demand for accurate testimony is greatest. The Holocaust is also the case most directly associated with the argument that historical education is a moral duty — that societies have an obligation to remember and transmit knowledge of historical atrocities to prevent their recurrence. “Never Again” is both a historical claim (this must not happen again) and a pedagogical programme (education about what happened is a means of preventing it).

But the epistemological and ethical relationship between historical memory and future prevention is more fraught than “Never Again” implies. What exactly is the lesson? That genocide is wrong? That is not a lesson that requires historical detail. That modern, educated, European societies can commit genocide? That is a more specific and disturbing lesson. That ordinary people will participate in atrocities when authority structures make it possible and rewarding to do so?

The historian Saul Friedländer, himself a Holocaust survivor, spent decades arguing for an approach to Holocaust historiography that neither reduces the events to cold structural analysis nor sentimentalises them into a morality tale. His two-volume Nazi Germany and the Jews (1997, 2007) is the exemplary achievement of this programme.104

That last connection is most often made in TOK textbooks via Milgram and Zimbardo, but the historical anchor is sturdier. Christopher Browning’s Ordinary Men (1992), drawing on the post-war interrogations of Reserve Police Battalion 101, shows the same pattern in actual perpetrators of mass killing.105 The battalion was a unit of about 500 middle-aged German order policemen — most too old for army conscription, mostly working-class Hamburgers, not pre-selected Nazi enthusiasts — sent to occupied Poland in June 1942. Their first mass killing came on 13 July 1942 at Józefów, where they were ordered to shoot some 1,500 Jewish women, children, and elderly men at point-blank range. Their commander, Major Wilhelm Trapp, made the unusual offer that any man who did not feel up to the task could step out and be assigned other duties. Twelve out of roughly 500 took the offer; the remaining 80–90 per cent carried out the killings, and the proportion who refused never rose materially over the months that followed.106 Browning’s central argument is that the killers were neither special sadists nor mere “obeyers”: they were ordinary men whose participation grew through small steps and unit-level peer pressure. Daniel Goldhagen’s Hitler’s Willing Executioners (1996), working largely from the same Battalion 101 archive, drew the opposite lesson — that the killers acted from an eliminationist anti-Semitism specific to German political culture and did not need the situational pressures Browning emphasises.107 The Browning–Goldhagen exchange is itself a piece of evidence about how the same archive yields different histories — and a useful corrective to the textbook habit of treating Milgram’s lab studies and Zimbardo’s prison experiment as the canonical evidence here. Milgram’s original studies survive scrutiny, though the popular “65% will administer lethal shocks” gloss flattens a wide range of obedience rates across his eighteen variations; Zimbardo’s Stanford Prison Experiment has been substantially impeached by Thibault Le Texier’s 2018 archival reconstruction.108109

8.3 Truth and Reconciliation

The South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission (1995–2002) and subsequent commissions in Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and elsewhere rest on a specific epistemological claim: that establishing a public, shared record of what happened — truth — is itself a form of justice and a precondition for social healing.110 Perpetrators were invited to testify in exchange for amnesty; victims were given a formal space to be heard. The commission produced historical knowledge and used it as an instrument of social policy simultaneously.

The assumptions are contestable. Can a single shared truth be established about atrocities in which perpetrators, victims, and bystanders all took part? Or does “truth” in this context mean something more modest — a public acknowledgment that certain things happened, even if the full causal account remains contested?

8.4 The Ethics of Monuments

Monuments are public history — claims about the past installed in shared space. The debates over Confederate statues in the United States, the Rhodes Must Fall movement that began in South Africa in 2015, the removal of Saddam Hussein’s statue in Baghdad in 2003 and the toppling of the slave trader Edward Colston’s statue in Bristol in 2020 — all are contests over whose history is publicly honoured.111112

The case for removing monuments is epistemological as well as political: a Confederate statue in a Virginia courthouse square is not a neutral commemoration of the past but an active claim about the present — about whose legacy deserves public honour, about how the Confederacy should be understood. The Southern Poverty Law Center’s Whose Heritage? survey found that the great majority of US Confederate monuments were not installed in the immediate post-bellum period of mourning but in two later waves: the 1900–1920s, coinciding with the consolidation of Jim Crow, and the 1950s–60s, coinciding with the civil rights backlash.113 The Robert E. Lee statue in Charlottesville is a representative case. Erected in 1924 — sixty years after Lee surrendered, well inside the first wave — it became the focal point of the Unite the Right rally on 11–12 August 2017, when several hundred white-nationalist and neo-Nazi marchers gathered to oppose its proposed removal. On the second day a self-identified neo-Nazi drove his car into a crowd of counter-protesters, killing the activist Heather Heyer and injuring thirty-five others.114 The Lee statue itself was finally removed in July 2021 and melted down in 2023.

The case against removal is also partly epistemological: erasing monuments is a form of the historical distortion that Orwell described. Contextualising plaques can let the monument stand as evidence of what people once chose to celebrate.

Both arguments are serious.

8.5 Questions

  1. Can historical education reliably prevent the recurrence of atrocities? If not, what is it for?
  2. Truth and Reconciliation Commissions assume that establishing shared historical truth can produce social healing. Is this assumption justified? What would evidence for or against it look like?
  3. When a community’s identity is bound up with a particular historical narrative, and that narrative is challenged by historical scholarship, who has the obligation to change — the community or the historians?
  4. Is there a principled difference between erasing monuments (as South African students demanded of Cecil Rhodes’s statue) and erasing historical records (as Orwell’s Winston Smith does at the Ministry of Truth)?

Should the Colston Statue Have Been Removed?

Whether Edward Colston’s involvement in the slave trade was wrong is not in question — it was. The question is what follows for public historical memory.

Position A: The statue should have been removed — not because Colston was bad, but because a statue in a public square is not a neutral commemoration. It is an active claim about whose legacy the community chooses to honour in shared space. The statue was installed in 1895 to make a statement about civic virtue; its presence in 2020 made a different statement, about whose suffering counts.

Position B: The statue should have been removed through legitimate political and democratic processes — not by a crowd acting unilaterally. The method of removal matters as much as the removal itself. A community that resolves historical questions through mob action has traded one form of epistemic coercion (erecting monuments to the powerful) for another (tearing down monuments when it becomes politically dangerous not to).

Choosing Position A commits you to specifying when public action becomes legitimate without prior democratic process — and how to distinguish the Colston toppling from the public actions that have torn down legitimate memorials elsewhere. Choosing Position B commits you to saying what counts as a “legitimate political process” when the relevant institution (in this case, the Bristol City Council and Society of Merchant Venturers) had blocked the proposed plaque for decades.

Commit before we compare. Before the class discussion, write your verdict in two or three sentences — name the side you take and the price you accept for taking it. Then test your own answer:

  • Did you draw the line on the method — the conditions under which a public may legitimately correct its own monuments — and not slide back to re-arguing whether Colston was a slave trader (he was)? An answer that re-fights the settled question has not yet begun.
  • Position A: did you say when public action becomes legitimate without prior democratic process — and how the Colston toppling differs from crowds tearing down legitimate memorials elsewhere?
  • Position B: did you say what counts as “legitimate process” when the institution had blocked even an explanatory plaque for decades?

9 Media

  • Hilary Mantel, Wolf Hall (2009) and Bring Up the Bodies (2012) — Historical fiction that foregrounds the constructed nature of historical knowledge; Mantel narrates from inside Cromwell’s perspective with no more access to his thoughts than any historian, but makes the epistemological limitations of this a formal feature of the work.
  • Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace (1869), Epilogue (Part Two) — Tolstoy’s philosophical excursus on historical causation; one of the most sustained and powerful arguments against the Great Man theory by a novelist working inside a masterpiece of historical fiction.
  • Joshua Oppenheimer, The Act of Killing (2012) — A documentary in which Indonesian perpetrators of the 1965 massacres re-enact their killings in the style of Hollywood genre films. One of the most disturbing and epistemologically complex films ever made about memory, violence, and history.
  • Toni Morrison, Beloved (1987) — A novel about the aftermath of American slavery, built on the premise that there are historical experiences so extreme they resist direct representation; a meditation on memory, trauma, and the limits of testimony.
  • Akira Kurosawa, Rashomon (1950) — The film that gave its name to a permanent epistemological concept: four accounts of the same event, all irreconcilable, none demonstrably false. A 90-minute argument about the insolubility of historical perspectivalism.
  • Ari Folman, Waltz with Bashir (2008) — An animated documentary in which the filmmaker, an Israeli veteran of the 1982 Lebanon war, tries to recover his repressed memories of the Sabra and Shatila massacre. The film raises the question of what historical knowledge can mean when the historian is also the eyewitness whose memory has failed.
  • Gabriel García Márquez, One Hundred Years of Solitude (1967) — A novel that enacts, in narrative form, the way collective memory operates: mythologised, telescoped, distorted by repetition, yet carrying something essential about historical experience that straightforward chronicle cannot.

10 Bibliography

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Braudel, Fernand. The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Philip II. 1949. Trans. Siân Reynolds. London: Collins, 1972–1973.

Brown, Dee. Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee: An Indian History of the American West. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1970.

Browning, Christopher R. Ordinary Men: Reserve Police Battalion 101 and the Final Solution in Poland. New York: HarperCollins, 1992.

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Clark, Christopher. The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914. London: Allen Lane, 2012.

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Dedijer, Vladimir. The Road to Sarajevo. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1966.

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Ginzburg, Carlo. “Clues: Roots of an Evidential Paradigm.” In Clues, Myths, and the Historical Method. Trans. John and Anne C. Tedeschi. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1989.

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Loftus, Elizabeth F. Eyewitness Testimony. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1979.

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11 Notes


  1. For the burial of the Unknown Warrior on 11 November 1920 and its ceremonial construction, see Neil Hanson, The Unknown Soldier: The Story of the Missing of the First World War (London: Doubleday, 2005).↩︎

  2. E. H. Carr, What is History? (1961), Chapter 1 (“The Historian and His Facts”), p. 38 of the 1990 Penguin reset. Carr’s compound sentence — “it is a continuous process of interaction between the historian and his facts, an unending dialogue between the present and the past” — is given verbatim above.↩︎

  3. E. H. Carr, What is History? (1961), Chapter 1. The quoted sentences appear in Carr’s discussion of the constructed character of the historical fact.↩︎

  4. Leopold von Ranke, preface to Geschichten der romanischen und germanischen Völker von 1494 bis 1514 (1824): “er [der Geschichtsschreiber] will bloss sagen, wie es eigentlich gewesen” — “[the historian] merely wants to show how it actually was.”↩︎

  5. Georg G. Iggers, The German Conception of History: The National Tradition of Historical Thought from Herder to the Present (Wesleyan University Press, 1968; rev. ed. 1983), Chapters 4–5; Leonard Krieger, Ranke: The Meaning of History (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1977); Peter Novick, That Noble Dream: The “Objectivity Question” and the American Historical Profession (Cambridge University Press, 1988), pp. 26–28 on Ranke’s reception in the United States. The crux: eigentlich in 1820s German philosophical prose has the sense “in its essence” rather than “in plain fact,” and Ranke’s own historical practice was suffused with the conviction that the historian discerns moral and providential patterns, not just chronicles them.↩︎

  6. Ibn Khaldun, al-Muqaddimah (1377), Introduction and Book I, Ch. III on the catalogue of historical errors; trans. Franz Rosenthal, The Muqaddimah: An Introduction to History, 3 vols. (Princeton University Press, 1958). For an accessible single-volume reader, see N. J. Dawood (ed.), Franz Rosenthal (trans.), The Muqaddimah: An Introduction to History — Abridged Edition (Princeton University Press, 1967). The ʿaṣabiyyah doctrine is developed across Book II.↩︎

  7. Sima Qian, Shiji (史記, c. 91 BCE), translated in Burton Watson, Records of the Grand Historian, 3 vols. (Columbia University Press, 1961–1993); selections also in Stephen Durrant, The Cloudy Mirror: Tension and Conflict in the Writings of Sima Qian (SUNY Press, 1995). On the five-format structure as a methodological device, see Hans van Ess, Politik und Geschichtsschreibung im alten China: Pan-ma i-t’ung (Harrassowitz, 2014).↩︎

  8. Carlo Ginzburg, Il formaggio e i vermi: Il cosmo di un mugnaio del ’500 (Turin: Einaudi, 1976); English translation by John and Anne C. Tedeschi as The Cheese and the Worms: The Cosmos of a Sixteenth-Century Miller (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980).↩︎

  9. G. R. Elton, The Practice of History (Sydney: Sydney University Press, 1967), especially Chapter 2 (“The Practice”), where Elton sets out the case for documentary discipline against the constructivism he reads in Carr. The Carr–Elton exchange is sustained: Elton’s preface explicitly positions the book as a rebuttal of What is History?, and Richard J. Evans’s In Defence of History (1997) is best read as a third entry in the same dispute.↩︎

  10. The Unabhängige Expertenkommission Schweiz — Zweiter Weltkrieg (UEK), commonly known as the Bergier Commission after its chair Jean-François Bergier (1931–2009), professor of economic history at ETH Zürich, was established by Federal Decree of 13 December 1996 (BB 96.075), which suspended Swiss banking secrecy for the purposes of the inquiry; the nine commissioners were appointed by the Federal Council on 19 December 1996. International political context: Stuart Eizenstat’s 1997 report to the U.S. Government on Looted Nazi Gold; the World Jewish Congress / Edgar Bronfman dormant-accounts negotiations 1995–98; the 1998 Holocaust Era Assets Conference. Standard Swiss reference: Georg Kreis, Die Schweiz und die NS-Zeit (Basel: Schwabe, 2011).↩︎

  11. Independent Commission of Experts Switzerland — Second World War, Final Report (Zürich: Pendo, 2002), in German Schlussbericht der Unabhängigen Expertenkommission Schweiz — Zweiter Weltkrieg; English edition by Berghahn (Oxford and New York, 2002). The 25 thematic Beiträge volumes appeared between 1999 and 2002. The figure of approximately 24,500 refugees turned away at the border 1938–45 derives from the Bergier refugee report of December 1999 (Beiträge volume on Swiss refugee policy); the Schlussbericht itself uses the more conservative figure of “around 20,000,” and historians including Marc Perrenoud (a scientific advisor to the commission) note that the destruction of border records means no exhaustive figure is recoverable. Gold transactions are documented in the Beiträge volumes by Marc Perrenoud and Hans Ulrich Jost. Detailed criticism from within the Swiss right, including Christoph Mörgeli’s articles in Schweizerzeit, is summarised in Thomas Maissen, Verweigerte Erinnerung: Nachrichtenlose Vermögen und die Schweizer Weltkriegsdebatte 1989–2004 (Zürich: NZZ, 2005).↩︎

  12. Ernst Nolte, “Vergangenheit, die nicht vergehen will: Eine Rede, die geschrieben, aber nicht gehalten werden konnte,” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 6 June 1986.↩︎

  13. Jürgen Habermas, “Eine Art Schadensabwicklung: Die apologetischen Tendenzen in der deutschen Zeitgeschichtsschreibung,” Die Zeit, 11 July 1986. For the full corpus of the dispute see “Historikerstreit”: Die Dokumentation der Kontroverse um die Einzigartigkeit der nationalsozialistischen Judenvernichtung (Munich: Piper, 1987).↩︎

  14. Karl Mannheim, Ideologie und Utopie (1929), Chapter V; English edition Ideology and Utopia: An Introduction to the Sociology of Knowledge, trans. Louis Wirth and Edward Shils (1936). Mannheim’s “relationism” — defined in the English edition (p. 120) as the view that “all of the elements of meaning in a given situation have reference to one another and derive their significance from this reciprocal interrelationship in a given frame of thought” — holds that knowledge is always relational to a social standpoint without thereby being merely relative (the explicit contrast with “relativism” is drawn at pp. 114, 119, and the Glossary at p. 316).↩︎

  15. Achille Mbembe, Politiques de l’inimitié (Paris: La Découverte, 2016); English translation by Steven Corcoran as Necropolitics (Durham: Duke University Press, 2019). For the German controversy: Felix Klein’s call for the cancellation of Mbembe’s invitation to the Ruhrtriennale appeared in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 27 March 2020. The IHRA working definition of antisemitism (adopted by the German federal government in 2017) is the document Klein invoked. For the broader background see Michael Rothberg, “Comparing Comparisons: From the ‘Historikerstreit’ to the Mbembe Affair,” Geschichte der Gegenwart, 23 September 2020.↩︎

  16. A. Dirk Moses, “The German Catechism,” Geschichte der Gegenwart, 23 May 2021. The essay enumerates five “catechistic” articles of German civic memory — the uniqueness of the Holocaust, the unique German responsibility for it, the unique virtue of postwar German remembrance culture, the singular standing of Israel as a state, and the prohibition on relativising comparison. The piece was the formal opening shot of what came to be called the Catechism Debate (Katechismus-Streit).↩︎

  17. For documentation of the 2021–22 Catechism Debate see the Die Zeit essay sequence (Saul Friedländer, Jürgen Zimmerer, Aleida Assmann, Dan Diner, Susan Neiman, May–November 2021); Moses’s response and follow-ups in Geschichte der Gegenwart and Multipolar; the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung interventions by Wolfgang Benz and Götz Aly. The debate is summarised in A. Dirk Moses, The Problems of Genocide: Permanent Security and the Language of Transgression (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2021), and in Aleida Assmann, Die Wiedererfindung der Nation: Warum wir sie fürchten und warum wir sie brauchen (Munich: C.H. Beck, 2020).↩︎

  18. R. G. Collingwood, The Idea of History (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1946), edited posthumously from his manuscripts by T. M. Knox.↩︎

  19. R. G. Collingwood, The Idea of History (1946), Part V (“Epilegomena”), §4 (“History as Re-enactment of Past Experience”).↩︎

  20. R. G. Collingwood, The Idea of History (1946), Part V, §1; the formulation “all history is the history of thought” is repeated throughout the Epilegomena.↩︎

  21. Herodotus, The Histories (c. 430 BCE), Book I, proem; Book VII, 152 for his famous statement that he is obliged to record what is said without being obliged to believe it.↩︎

  22. Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War, I.22. The formulation in the Hammond (Oxford World’s Classics) translation reads: “My method in this book has been to make each speaker say broadly what I supposed would have been needed on any given occasion, while keeping as closely as I could to the overall intent of what was actually said… It was composed as a permanent legacy, not a showpiece for a single hearing” (the latter rendering the Greek κτῆμά τε ἐς αἰεί).↩︎

  23. Thomas Nagel, The View from Nowhere (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1986), especially the Introduction and Chapter I.↩︎

  24. Julius Caesar, Commentarii de Bello Gallico (c. 50 BCE) and Commentarii de Bello Civili (c. 45 BCE). On the propagandistic function of the Commentarii, see Kathryn Welch and Anton Powell, eds., Julius Caesar as Artful Reporter (Swansea: Classical Press of Wales, 1998).↩︎

  25. Fernand Braudel, La Méditerranée et le monde méditerranéen à l’époque de Philippe II (Paris: Armand Colin, 1949); 2nd revised edn. 1966; English translation as The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Philip II, trans. Siân Reynolds (London: Collins, 1972–1973). Braudel’s tripartite structure (longue durée, conjunctures, events) is set out in the preface to the first edition.↩︎

  26. The Annales school takes its name from the journal Annales d’histoire économique et sociale (later Annales. Économies, Sociétés, Civilisations; now Annales. Histoire, Sciences Sociales), founded in Strasbourg in 1929 by Lucien Febvre and Marc Bloch. For an overview see Peter Burke, The French Historical Revolution: The Annales School, 1929–89 (Cambridge: Polity Press, 1990).↩︎

  27. Carlo Ginzburg, Il formaggio e i vermi: Il cosmo di un mugnaio del ’500 (Turin: Einaudi, 1976); English translation by John and Anne C. Tedeschi as The Cheese and the Worms: The Cosmos of a Sixteenth-Century Miller (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980).↩︎

  28. Marc Bloch, Apologie pour l’histoire ou Métier d’historien (Paris: Armand Colin, 1949), drafted while Bloch was active in the French Resistance and unfinished at his execution by the Gestapo in June 1944; English translation by Peter Putnam as The Historian’s Craft (New York: Knopf, 1953), Chapter II (“Historical Observation”), §§2–3 on intentional vs. unintentional witnesses (témoignages volontaires / involontaires).↩︎

  29. Elizabeth F. Loftus, Eyewitness Testimony (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1979); and Elizabeth F. Loftus and John C. Palmer, “Reconstruction of Automobile Destruction: An Example of the Interaction Between Language and Memory,” Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior 13 (1974): 585–589.↩︎

  30. The wreck of RMS Titanic was located by Robert Ballard’s expedition on 1 September 1985; it was found in two major sections approximately 600 metres apart on the seabed, confirming that the ship had broken in two before sinking. See Robert D. Ballard, The Discovery of the Titanic (New York: Warner/Madison Press, 1987).↩︎

  31. Julius Caesar, Commentarii de Bello Gallico (c. 50 BCE), Books I–VII (Book VIII by Aulus Hirtius).↩︎

  32. Walter Benjamin, “Über den Begriff der Geschichte” (1940), Thesis VII: “to brush history against the grain” (die Geschichte gegen den Strich zu bürsten); translation by Harry Zohn in Illuminations (New York: Schocken, 1968).↩︎

  33. Jacques Derrida, Mal d’Archive: Une impression freudienne (Paris: Galilée, 1995); English translation by Eric Prenowitz as Archive Fever: A Freudian Impression (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1996).↩︎

  34. Michel-Rolph Trouillot, Silencing the Past: Power and the Production of History (Boston: Beacon Press, 1995), Chapter 1 (“The Power in the Story”). The four moments are not strictly sequential — silences accumulate and reinforce each other across the production of historical knowledge.↩︎

  35. Gilbert Harman, “The Inference to the Best Explanation,” Philosophical Review 74.1 (1965): 88–95. Peirce’s earlier formulation appears as “abduction” or “retroduction” in the Collected Papers, esp. 5.171–172.↩︎

  36. W. H. Walsh, An Introduction to Philosophy of History (London: Hutchinson, 1951; rev. edn. 1967), Chapter II (“The Nature and Conditions of Historical Knowledge”) and Chapter III (“Historical Explanation”). Walsh extends Collingwood’s re-enactment doctrine while insisting on the inferential character of historical reasoning, and develops his concept of “colligation” — the locating of an event within a wider historical process — as the historian’s distinctive cognitive operation.↩︎

  37. Carlo Ginzburg, “Spie. Radici di un paradigma indiziario” (1979), translated as “Clues: Roots of an Evidential Paradigm” in Clues, Myths, and the Historical Method, trans. John and Anne C. Tedeschi (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1989); on Morelli’s attribution method as the model for symptomatic reading, pp. 96–125.↩︎

  38. Hayden White, Metahistory: The Historical Imagination in Nineteenth-Century Europe (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1973), Introduction (“The Poetics of History”).↩︎

  39. Plutarch, Life of Antony (c. 100 CE), especially §§25–29 (Cleopatra’s meeting with Antony at Cydnus) and §§83–86 (the suicide). Plutarch wrote approximately 130 years after Cleopatra’s death in 30 BCE.↩︎

  40. For the technical analysis see Bobby Allyn, “Deepfake video of Zelenskyy could be ‘tip of the iceberg’ in info war, experts warn,” NPR, 16 March 2022; the Atlantic Council Digital Forensic Research Lab analysis at https://medium.com/dfrlab is the standard cited write-up. The fake was crude by 2024 standards but established the format; the BBC Verify and AFP Fact Check units now treat synthetic-media authentication as standard newsroom practice.↩︎

  41. Colston was admitted to the Royal African Company on 25 March 1680 and held a substantial shareholding until 1692; he served as deputy governor (under James, Duke of York, the company’s governor) in 1689–1690. Recent estimates of the company’s traffic during Colston’s involvement converge on roughly 84,000 people transported and approximately 19,000 deaths in the Middle Passage. The branding of all enslaved people on the chest with the company’s “RAC” mark, including children, is documented in the company’s own correspondence. See Pettigrew, Freedom’s Debt (2013); Madge Dresser, Slavery Obscured: The Social History of the Slave Trade in an English Provincial Port (London: Continuum, 2001), Chapters 1–2; and the Bristol Radical History Group’s Edward Colston Research Papers (2020), https://www.brh.org.uk/site/articles/edward-colston-research-paper-2/ (accessed 1 May 2026).↩︎

  42. The statue of Edward Colston by John Cassidy was erected on Colston Avenue in Bristol in 1895; it was toppled and thrown into Bristol Harbour on 7 June 2020. For the Royal African Company’s involvement in the Atlantic slave trade, see William A. Pettigrew, Freedom’s Debt: The Royal African Company and the Politics of the Atlantic Slave Trade, 1672–1752 (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2013).↩︎

  43. R v. Graham, Ponsford, Skuse and Willoughby (Bristol Crown Court, December 2021–January 2022); jury verdict of not guilty (11–1) on 5 January 2022. The Attorney General subsequently referred a point of law to the Court of Appeal: Attorney General’s Reference (No 1 of 2022) [2022] EWCA Crim 1259, ruling that the jury direction on Article 10 of the European Convention on Human Rights had been wrong in law where the damage to property was significant, but without affecting the acquittals. For the political and legal background see Roger Ball, “The Bristol Statue Trial: Why the Verdict Mattered,” History Workshop Online, 14 January 2022.↩︎

  44. Baruch Fischhoff, “Hindsight ≠ Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment Under Uncertainty,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 1.3 (1975): 288–299.↩︎

  45. Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Part III (“Overconfidence”), Chapter 19 (“The Illusion of Understanding”) and Chapter 20 (“The Illusion of Validity”).↩︎

  46. Fritz Fischer, Griff nach der Weltmacht: Die Kriegszielpolitik des kaiserlichen Deutschland 1914/18 (Düsseldorf: Droste, 1961); English translation as Germany’s Aims in the First World War (New York: Norton, 1967). For the trajectory of the Fischer-Kontroverse and its entanglement with West German political memory, see John A. Moses, The Politics of Illusion: The Fischer Controversy in German Historiography (London: George Prior, 1975), and the survey in Annika Mombauer, The Origins of the First World War: Controversies and Consensus (London: Longman, 2002), Chapter 4. Christopher Clark’s The Sleepwalkers is most usefully read as a generation-later answer to the Fischer thesis.↩︎

  47. Christopher Clark, The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914 (London: Allen Lane, 2012), especially Part III.↩︎

  48. Sheila Rowbotham, Hidden from History: 300 Years of Women’s Oppression and the Fight Against It (London: Pluto Press, 1973).↩︎

  49. Richard J. Evans, In Defence of History (London: Granta Books, 1997), especially Chapter 8 (“Objectivity and Its Limits”).↩︎

  50. For the “popular uprising” reading, see Sheila Fitzpatrick, The Russian Revolution (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1982; 4th edn. 2017), Chapters 2–3, and the social-historical “revisionist” school surveyed in her “The Russian Revolution and Social Mobility: A Re-examination of the Question of Social Support for the Soviet Regime in the 1920s and 1930s,” Politics and Society 13.2 (1984). For the “Bolshevik coup” reading, see Richard Pipes, The Russian Revolution (New York: Knopf, 1990), Part II. For an attempt at synthesis foregrounding the wartime context, see Orlando Figes, A People’s Tragedy: The Russian Revolution, 1891–1924 (London: Jonathan Cape, 1996).↩︎

  51. George Orwell, Nineteen Eighty-Four (London: Secker and Warburg, 1949), Part Three, Chapter 2. The slogan “Who controls the past controls the future; who controls the present controls the past” is first given as a Party maxim in Part One, Chapter 3, and repeated in Part Three.↩︎

  52. David King, The Commissar Vanishes: The Falsification of Photographs and Art in Stalin’s Russia (New York: Metropolitan Books, 1997). The canonical image is the serial retouching of the Moscow–Volga canal photograph of 1937, from which Nikolai Yezhov was removed after his 1940 execution.↩︎

  53. Ranajit Guha, ed., Subaltern Studies I: Writings on South Asian History and Society (Delhi: Oxford University Press, 1982). For an overview, see Vinayak Chaturvedi, ed., Mapping Subaltern Studies and the Postcolonial (London: Verso, 2000).↩︎

  54. The standard narrative account remains Vladimir Dedijer, The Road to Sarajevo (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1966). Princip’s own account is recorded in the interrogation transcripts published in Vojislav Bogićević, ed., Sarajevski atentat: Izvorne stenografske beleške sa glavne rasprave (Sarajevo, 1954).↩︎

  55. On Ujedinjenje ili Smrt (“Union or Death”), founded in Belgrade in May 1911 by officers around Colonel Dragutin Dimitrijević (“Apis”), and on its operational role in supplying and infiltrating the Sarajevo assassins, see David MacKenzie, Apis, the Congenial Conspirator: The Life of Colonel Dragutin T. Dimitrijević (Boulder: East European Monographs, 1989), and the entry “Black Hand” in Ute Daniel et al., eds., 1914-1918-Online: International Encyclopedia of the First World War (Berlin: Freie Universität, 2014–). The seven-strong assassination team also carried cyanide capsules; the cyanide failed and Princip was captured alive.↩︎

  56. For the Čabrinović bomb attempt, the change of route after the Town Hall reception, and the driver’s wrong turn into Franz Josef Street, see Christopher Clark, The Sleepwalkers (London: Allen Lane, 2012), pp. 367–376, and Annika Mombauer, “The Origins of the First World War,” in 1914-1918-Online (2014). The driver, Leopold Lojka, did not understand the German-language order to take the new route and turned as planned; the Archduke’s adjutant ordered him to stop and reverse, bringing the car to rest in front of Schiller’s delicatessen on the corner of Franz Josef Street and Appel Quay, where Princip was standing.↩︎

  57. The Austro-Hungarian note of 23 July 1914 set out ten demands; full text in British Documents on the Origins of the War, 1898–1914, vol. XI (London: HMSO, 1926), no. 91. The decisive demand (point 6) was that “organs delegated by the Imperial and Royal Government” take part on Serbian territory in the investigation into the assassination — a direct infringement of Serbian sovereignty. Serbia’s reply of 25 July accepted nine of the ten points and offered international arbitration on the sixth; Austria-Hungary broke off relations the same day and declared war on 28 July. See Clark, The Sleepwalkers, Chapter 11, and Sean McMeekin, July 1914: Countdown to War (New York: Basic Books, 2013), Chapters 6–10.↩︎

  58. Christopher Clark, The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914 (London: Allen Lane, 2012), especially Part III.↩︎

  59. A. J. P. Taylor, War by Time-Table: How the First World War Began (London: Macdonald, 1969). The thesis was anticipated in Taylor’s earlier The Struggle for Mastery in Europe, 1848–1918 (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1954).↩︎

  60. Thomas Carlyle, On Heroes, Hero-Worship, and the Heroic in History (London: James Fraser, 1841), Lecture I (“The Hero as Divinity”); cited from the Berkeley critical edition (University of California Press, 1993), where the formulation “The History of the world is but the Biography of great men” appears at p. 26 (Lecture I) and is editorially flagged at p. 350 as one of Carlyle’s most-quoted and most-misrepresented sentences.↩︎

  61. Karl Marx, Der achtzehnte Brumaire des Louis Bonaparte (1852), opening paragraph: “Die Menschen machen ihre eigene Geschichte, aber sie machen sie nicht aus freien Stücken, nicht unter selbstgewählten, sondern unter unmittelbar vorgefundenen, gegebenen und überlieferten Umständen.” Translations vary chiefly in word order; the standard English is Padover’s, in the Marx-Engels Selected Works (Progress, 1969).↩︎

  62. Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace (1869), Second Epilogue, especially Chapters I–VII, which develop a sustained philosophical critique of the attribution of historical causality to great men.↩︎

  63. Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace (1869), Book IX, Chapter 1, in the translation by Richard Pevear and Larissa Volokhonsky (New York: Knopf, 2007). The passage falls within Tolstoy’s reflection on Napoleon’s decision to invade Russia in 1812. The Maude translation of the same passage (in wide circulation) renders the cardinal sentence as “A king is history’s slave”; the wording adopted here is verbatim from the Pevear/Volokhonsky text.↩︎

  64. G. W. F. Hegel, Lectures on the Philosophy of History, Introduction §III (“The Idea of History and Its Realization”): “This may be called the cunning of reason — that it sets the passions to work for itself, while that which develops its existence through such impulsion pays the penalty, and suffers loss.” World-historical individuals are agents of Spirit who do not enjoy what they accomplish: “they die early, like Alexander; they are murdered, like Caesar; transported to St. Helena, like Napoleon.” Trans. J. Sibree (Bohn, 1857); the modern academic translation is H. B. Nisbet’s Lectures on the Philosophy of World History (Cambridge, 1975).↩︎

  65. Tolstoy’s own image is the locomotive, not the ship: Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace (1869), Second Epilogue, Chapters I–III, where he argues that to call any one cause in an indefinite chain “the cause” of a historical event is arbitrary, and develops the locomotive analogy in Chapter III to illustrate how the historian’s choice of a stopping-point is itself the artefact requiring explanation. The wake-and-propeller paraphrase in the body text adapts the same argument.↩︎

  66. Niall Ferguson, ed., Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals (London: Picador, 1997), Introduction (“Virtual History: Towards a ‘Chaotic’ Theory of the Past”). Ferguson’s introduction makes the methodological case for disciplined counterfactual reasoning as a corrective to retrospective determinism.↩︎

  67. Ian Kershaw, Hitler, 2 vols.: Hubris, 1889–1936 (Allen Lane, 1998) and Nemesis, 1936–1945 (Allen Lane, 2000). Hubris Chapter 13 (“Working Towards the Führer”) gives the structuralist-individualist dispute its sharpest formulation: cabinet meetings fell from twelve in 1935 to six in 1937 to none after 5 February 1938. Chapter 14 (“Ceaseless Radicalization”) covers the Rhineland gamble of 1936 and the April 1937 Gauleiter speech. Nemesis picks up Anschluss, Munich, and the war. Kershaw’s verdict, against most structuralist accounts: the specific course is not intelligible without Hitler’s individual decisions.↩︎

  68. E. H. Carr, What is History? (London: Macmillan, 1961), Chapter 4 (“Causation in History”), opening section on the priority of causes. Carr’s claim is that working historians, faced with a list of causes, “feel a professional compulsion to reduce it to order, to establish some hierarchy of causes” — and that the history of historiography is largely a history of which hierarchy each generation has preferred. The Russian Revolution example, and the Gibbon/Whig contrast in the body text, are Carr’s own from the same chapter.↩︎

  69. Richard J. Evans, In Defence of History (London: Granta Books, 1997), Chapter 5 (“Causation in History”), section on necessary, sufficient, and overdetermined causes. Evans’s chapter is partly a defence of Carr against the postmodernist suspicion that “causation” itself is a metaphysical hangover; partly a refinement of Carr’s looser hierarchy through the necessary/sufficient distinction. The verbatim definitions of necessary and sufficient causes, and the formulation that historical events “may have several sufficient as well as necessary causes, any one of which might have been enough to trigger the event on its own,” are quoted from this chapter.↩︎

  70. The phrase has no documented origin in Churchill’s writings or speeches, despite the standard attribution; see “Quotes Falsely Attributed to Winston Churchill,” International Churchill Society, https://winstonchurchill.org/resources/quotes/quotes-falsely-attributed/ (accessed 26 April 2026), and Matthew Phelan, “The History of ‘History Is Written by the Victors,’” Slate, 26 November 2019. The sentiment is older — a French version is attested by 1842 and an English variant by 1844 in connection with Robespierre.↩︎

  71. The Mohrenkopf (Swiss-German), tête de nègre (Swiss-French — and itself the subject of parallel renaming campaigns since the 1990s), or Negerkuss (older German term, now disused), is a chocolate-coated marshmallow on a wafer base, produced commercially in Switzerland from the late nineteenth century. The Othello-brand Mohrenkopf is produced by Robert Dubler AG, founded in Wohlen (Aargau) in 1946 by Robert Dubler sr. and Frieda Dubler, with production relocated to Waltenschwil (Aargau) in 1953. Standard reference for Swiss commercial racialisation: Patricia Purtschert, Barbara Lüthi, and Francesca Falk, eds., Postkoloniale Schweiz: Formen und Folgen eines Kolonialismus ohne Kolonien (Bielefeld: transcript, 2012).↩︎

  72. Migros announcement of 10 June 2020 withdrawing the Othello-brand Mohrenkopf from the two Zurich-region Migros branches that had carried it (the product was never in the wider Migros assortment); coverage in Aargauer Zeitung, Blick, Nau, and NZZ, 10–12 June 2020. Migrolino announced withdrawal in July 2020; Spar and Volg followed. Different Migros co-operatives took different positions, with the NZZ reporting the dispute under the headline “Eine Migros widerspricht der anderen.” Robert Dubler’s public defence of the name and the SVP-coordinated “Mohrenkopf bestellen” campaign drove direct sales above 2019 levels by year-end.↩︎

  73. Hans Fässler, Reise in Schwarz-Weiss: Schweizer Ortstermine in Sachen Sklaverei (Zürich: Rotpunkt, 2005), inventories Mohren iconography in Swiss commercial signage from the seventeenth century forward, including the Mohrenapotheke tradition (originally referring to medicinal plants from Africa) and the Mohrenpfeife tobacconist signs. The Federal Commission against Racism (EKR) thematic Tangram issue of 2007 and the 2022 EKR-commissioned legal study Rassismus gegenüber Schwarzen Menschen in der Schweiz, alongside the contrasting position taken in 2020 Weltwoche editorials by Roger Köppel, are the main political registers of the Swiss dispute.↩︎

  74. The Wounded Knee massacre of 29 December 1890; for a recent scholarly reconstruction see Jeffrey Ostler, The Plains Sioux and U.S. Colonialism from Lewis and Clark to Wounded Knee (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004), Chapters 11–12.↩︎

  75. Dee Brown, Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee: An Indian History of the American West (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1970), especially Chapter 19 (“Wounded Knee”).↩︎

  76. E. P. Thompson, The Making of the English Working Class (London: Gollancz, 1963), Preface. Thompson’s oft-cited aim is “to rescue the poor stockinger, the Luddite cropper… from the enormous condescension of posterity.” See also Thompson, “History from Below,” Times Literary Supplement, 7 April 1966.↩︎

  77. Ranajit Guha, “On Some Aspects of the Historiography of Colonial India,” in Guha, ed., Subaltern Studies I (Delhi: Oxford University Press, 1982), 1–8.↩︎

  78. Gayatri Chakravorty Spivak, “Can the Subaltern Speak?” in Cary Nelson and Lawrence Grossberg, eds., Marxism and the Interpretation of Culture (Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1988), 271–313.↩︎

  79. The Annales school takes its name from the journal Annales d’histoire économique et sociale (later Annales. Économies, Sociétés, Civilisations; now Annales. Histoire, Sciences Sociales), founded in Strasbourg in 1929 by Lucien Febvre and Marc Bloch. For an overview see Peter Burke, The French Historical Revolution: The Annales School, 1929–89 (Cambridge: Polity Press, 1990).↩︎

  80. Fernand Braudel, La Méditerranée et le monde méditerranéen à l’époque de Philippe II (Paris: Armand Colin, 1949); 2nd revised edn. 1966; English translation as The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Philip II, trans. Siân Reynolds (London: Collins, 1972–1973). Braudel’s tripartite structure (longue durée, conjunctures, events) is set out in the preface to the first edition.↩︎

  81. Michel-Rolph Trouillot, Silencing the Past: Power and the Production of History (Boston: Beacon Press, 1995), Chapter 3 (“An Unthinkable History: The Haitian Revolution as a Non-event”). Trouillot draws on Pierre Bourdieu’s definition of the unthinkable as that for which one lacks “instruments of thought such as problematics, concepts, methods, techniques.” Note that Trouillot’s thesis is the conceptual one — that Saint-Domingue could not be assimilated to the available political category of revolution — rather than the empirical claim that no European registered the events; the documentary record of contemporary perception is in fact substantial, as Jeremy Popkin and others have shown. See Jeremy D. Popkin, You Are All Free: The Haitian Revolution and the Abolition of Slavery (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010), and Laurent Dubois, Avengers of the New World: The Story of the Haitian Revolution (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2004).↩︎

  82. William Wordsworth, “To Toussaint L’Ouverture,” composed 1802, first published in the Morning Post, 2 February 1803, and collected in Poems, in Two Volumes (London: Longman, 1807). Wordsworth wrote the sonnet after Toussaint’s arrest by Napoleon’s forces and his transportation to the Fort de Joux in the Jura, where he died in April 1803. The poem treats Toussaint as a tragic political actor in a recognisably republican register — exactly the register Trouillot’s stronger reading would predict to be unavailable.↩︎

  83. France imposed a punitive indemnity in 1825 (150 million gold francs, later reduced to 90 million) as the price of diplomatic recognition; the United States did not recognise Haiti until 1862. On the long-run economic effect of the indemnity see Marlene L. Daut, “When France Extorted Haiti — the Greatest Heist in History,” The Conversation, 30 June 2020, and the New York Times “Ransom” investigation of May 2022. The post-independence silencing was therefore not only conceptual but materially enforced.↩︎

  84. For the Australian Dictionary of Biography’s programme of recovering Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander lives, see the project description at https://adb.anu.edu.au/project/indigenous-australian-dictionary-biography (accessed 26 April 2026), and Shino Konishi, “An Indigenous Australian Dictionary of Biography,” in Karen Fox, ed., True Biographies of Nations? The Cultural Journeys of Dictionaries of National Biography (Canberra: ANU Press, 2019). On the underlying methodological problem of integrating oral and material evidence into archival history, see also Bain Attwood and Stephen Foster, eds., Frontier Conflict: The Australian Experience (Canberra: National Museum of Australia, 2003).↩︎

  85. Auguste Comte, Cours de philosophie positive, 6 vols. (Paris: Bachelier, 1830–1842). The programme for a “social physics” (later renamed “sociology”) is set out in volume IV.↩︎

  86. Peter Turchin, “Political Instability May Be a Contributor in the Coming Decade,” Nature 463 (2010): 608. A single-page commentary projecting a peak of instability in the United States around 2020.↩︎

  87. Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History (Chaplin, CT: Beresta Books, 2016).↩︎

  88. Karl Popper, The Poverty of Historicism (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1957). Popper’s argument that large-scale historical prediction is impossible in principle is developed in §§27–30.↩︎

  89. Annales d’histoire économique et sociale was founded in Strasbourg by Lucien Febvre and Marc Bloch in January 1929. Renamed Annales. Économies, Sociétés, Civilisations in 1946, and Annales. Histoire, Sciences Sociales in 1994.↩︎

  90. Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie, Montaillou, village occitan de 1294 à 1324 (Paris: Gallimard, 1975); English translation by Barbara Bray as Montaillou: Cathars and Catholics in a French Village, 1294–1324 (London: Scolar Press, 1978). Ladurie worked from the Inquisition register of Jacques Fournier, later Pope Benedict XII.↩︎

  91. Peter Turchin, Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2003), where the programme of cliodynamics is first named and set out. See also Turchin, “Arise ‘Cliodynamics’,” Nature 454 (2008): 34–35.↩︎

  92. Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History (Chaplin, CT: Beresta Books, 2016).↩︎

  93. Karl Popper, The Logic of Scientific Discovery (1934; English edn. 1959), Chapter IV (“Falsifiability”); and Conjectures and Refutations (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1963), Chapter 1.↩︎

  94. Hayden White, Metahistory: The Historical Imagination in Nineteenth-Century Europe (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1973), Introduction (“The Poetics of History”).↩︎

  95. White, Metahistory (1973), Introduction, §§3–4, on emplotment by genre (romance, tragedy, comedy, satire) following Northrop Frye’s Anatomy of Criticism (1957).↩︎

  96. For White’s specific readings of the nineteenth-century historians, see Hayden White, Metahistory (1973), Chapter 4 (“Ranke: Historical Realism as Comedy”), Chapter 6 (“Burckhardt: Historical Realism as Satire”), and Chapter 8 (“Marx: The Philosophical Defense of History in the Metonymical Mode”). Note that White assigns Ranke to the Comic, not the Romantic, mode; the body text’s looser characterisation foregrounds the redemptive cast that Ranke shares with Romance, while White’s own scheme reserves Romance for Michelet (Chapter 3).↩︎

  97. Hayden White, Tropics of Discourse: Essays in Cultural Criticism (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978).↩︎

  98. Hayden White, The Content of the Form: Narrative Discourse and Historical Representation (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1987).↩︎

  99. T. R. Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population, as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society (London: J. Johnson, 1798), Chapters I–II, where the geometric/arithmetic ratio between population growth and food supply is set out. Malthus extensively revised the argument across six further editions to 1826; the prediction of recurrent demographic catastrophe was not borne out by the agricultural and demographic transitions of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.↩︎

  100. Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Chapter 19 (“The Illusion of Understanding”). The term “narrative fallacy” is drawn by Kahneman from Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan (2007), Chapter 6.↩︎

  101. Primo Levi, I sommersi e i salvati (Turin: Einaudi, 1986); English translation by Raymond Rosenthal as The Drowned and the Saved (New York: Summit Books, 1988), pp. 87–88. The blockquote is verbatim from the Rosenthal translation, immediately preceding the Solzhenitsyn citation Levi himself draws on. The argument that the drowned — not the survivors — are the “complete witnesses” is the central thesis of the book.↩︎

  102. Benedict Anderson, Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism (London: Verso, 1983; rev. edn. 1991), Chapter 1.↩︎

  103. Pierre Nora, ed., Les lieux de mémoire, 7 vols. (Paris: Gallimard, 1984–1992); partial English translation as Realms of Memory, 3 vols. (New York: Columbia University Press, 1996–1998). See Nora’s programmatic essay “Entre mémoire et histoire: La problématique des lieux,” in vol. 1.↩︎

  104. Saul Friedländer, Nazi Germany and the Jews, 2 vols.: The Years of Persecution, 1933–1939 (New York: HarperCollins, 1997) and The Years of Extermination, 1939–1945 (New York: HarperCollins, 2007).↩︎

  105. Christopher R. Browning, Ordinary Men: Reserve Police Battalion 101 and the Final Solution in Poland (New York: HarperCollins, 1992). The book reconstructs the involvement of a single battalion in the killing of Polish Jews from 1942 onwards, drawing on post-war interrogations conducted in the 1960s. Browning’s central argument is that the killers were neither special sadists nor mere “obeyers”: ordinary men whose participation grew through small steps and unit-level social pressure.↩︎

  106. For the Józefów action of 13 July 1942, in which Reserve Police Battalion 101 shot some 1,500 Jews under the command of Major Wilhelm Trapp, see Browning, Ordinary Men (1992), Chapter 7 (“Initiation to Mass Murder: The Józefów Massacre”). Browning records that approximately twelve of the roughly 500 men present took up Trapp’s offer to be excused from the killing — only one (Otto-Julius Schimke) stepping out immediately, with ten or twelve others following after Trapp protected him from Captain Hoffmann’s reprimand. Browning calls this an “extraordinary offer” and stresses that he “had not encountered the issue of choice so dramatically framed by the course of events and so openly discussed by at least some of the perpetrators” in twenty years of Holocaust research.↩︎

  107. Daniel Jonah Goldhagen, Hitler’s Willing Executioners: Ordinary Germans and the Holocaust (New York: Knopf, 1996). Goldhagen’s central thesis — “eliminationist anti-Semitism” as a specifically German cultural pathology — drew sustained criticism from Browning and others. For the exchange, see Christopher R. Browning, “Daniel Goldhagen’s Willing Executioners,” History and Memory 8.1 (1996): 88–108, and the symposium in German Politics and Society 15.3 (1997).↩︎

  108. Stanley Milgram, Obedience to Authority: An Experimental View (New York: Harper & Row, 1974); originally reported in Milgram, “Behavioral Study of Obedience,” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 67.4 (1963): 371–378. Note that the popular “65% delivered lethal shocks” headline is for one Milgram condition; across the eighteen variations he ran, obedience ranged from 0 % to 92.5 %. Gina Perry, Behind the Shock Machine: The Untold Story of the Notorious Milgram Psychology Experiments (rev. ed. 2013), draws on the Yale archives to show that Milgram and his collaborators were selective in what they reported.↩︎

  109. Philip G. Zimbardo, The Lucifer Effect: Understanding How Good People Turn Evil (New York: Random House, 2007). For the original Stanford Prison Experiment report, see Craig Haney, Curtis Banks, and Philip Zimbardo, “Interpersonal Dynamics in a Simulated Prison,” International Journal of Criminology and Penology 1 (1973): 69–97. The methodology and conclusions of the SPE have been substantially contested; see Thibault Le Texier, Histoire d’un mensonge: Enquête sur l’expérience de Stanford (Paris: La Découverte, 2018).↩︎

  110. For the establishment, procedures, and findings of the South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission (1995–2002), see Truth and Reconciliation Commission of South Africa Report, 7 vols. (Cape Town: Juta, 1998–2003). For critical assessment, see Richard A. Wilson, The Politics of Truth and Reconciliation in South Africa: Legitimizing the Post-Apartheid State (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001).↩︎

  111. The Rhodes Must Fall movement began at the University of Cape Town on 9 March 2015 with Chumani Maxwele’s protest at the statue of Cecil Rhodes; the statue was removed on 9 April 2015. For context see Roseanne Chantiluke, Brian Kwoba, and Athinangamso Nkopo, eds., Rhodes Must Fall: The Struggle to Decolonise the Racist Heart of Empire (London: Zed Books, 2018).↩︎

  112. The toppling of Saddam Hussein’s statue in Firdos Square, Baghdad, on 9 April 2003, was orchestrated with the assistance of a U.S. Marine recovery vehicle (M88). For a critical reconstruction see Peter Maass, “The Toppling: How the Media Inflated a Minor Moment in a Long War,” The New Yorker, 10 January 2011.↩︎

  113. For the chronology of Confederate monument construction, with the dual peaks in the 1900s–1920s (the consolidation of Jim Crow) and the 1950s–60s (the response to civil rights), see Southern Poverty Law Center, Whose Heritage? Public Symbols of the Confederacy, 3rd edn. (Montgomery, AL: SPLC, 2022), https://www.splcenter.org/whose-heritage (accessed 26 April 2026). For a representative case, the Robert E. Lee equestrian statue in Charlottesville was commissioned in 1917 and unveiled in 1924; see Christy Coleman et al., Report of the City of Charlottesville Blue Ribbon Commission on Race, Memorials, and Public Spaces (Charlottesville: City of Charlottesville, 2016).↩︎

  114. For the Unite the Right rally of 11–12 August 2017, the killing of Heather Heyer (1985–2017) by James Alex Fields Jr., who drove his car into a crowd of counter-protesters on 12 August, and the eventual removal of the Lee statue in July 2021, see Final Report: Independent Review of the 2017 Protest Events in Charlottesville, Virginia (Hunton & Williams LLP, 1 December 2017), commissioned by the City of Charlottesville and known as the Heaphy Report. Fields was convicted of first-degree murder in December 2018 and sentenced to life in prison; the Lee bronze was melted down in October 2023 in a project documented by the Jefferson School African American Heritage Center.↩︎